MLB Baseball
2012-05-02 - Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
United States: Major League Baseball
Wednesday 2 May 2012 - First Pitch 7:05pm ET
12:05am (British Standard Time)
Preview
It seems I was right to be worried about Phil Hughes yesterday, although it was the lack of run support that saw the pitcher take his fourth decision loss of the season when the New York Yankees (13-10) fell to a 1-7 loss to the Baltimore Orioles (15-9).
That means the series between the two teams is tied with this rubber game to go as Baltimore try and win their first series against the Yankees in 15 years. Baltimore have their best record after 24 games since the 2005 season when they began 17-7.
It is mainly thanks to their starting pitching crew that Baltimore have won 7 of their last 9 games overall, although they will need Jake Arrieta to forget his last start when he allowed 4 runs in just under 6 innings pitched against the Oakland Athletics.
Arrieta is 1-2 with a 4.45 ERA so far this season but his last 4 starts have led to a 0-2 record and a 5.79 ERA. He has failed to get a win in his last 4 starts against New York having won his first 2 starts against them, and he gave up 4 runs in just under 7 innings pitched against them earlier this season.
The Yankees will feel they can win the series as they give the ball to Ivan Nova, a pitcher who seems to inspire the batting line up to give him plenty of run support. Nova is now 15-0 over his last 20 starts for New York and he will match the franchise record of 16th consecutive wins if the bats can help him out again.
Nova is 3-0 this season with a 5.18 ERA and he has been supported by an average of 8.05 runs per game over his last 20 starts for the club. The pitcher is also 3-0 from 4 starts against the Orioles in that run, compiling a 3.42 ERA, but he has also been supported by 35 runs in that sequence.
He gave up just 2 runs from 7 innings pitched against Baltimore earlier this season.
Head to Head
New York are now 22-7 in their last 29 home games against Baltimore following the loss last night.
The Yankees are now 4-1 against Baltimore with Ivan Nova starting for them.
New York are 7-5 at home, Baltimore are 7-5 on the road.
Prediction
I went for the Yankees on the run line yesterday and I am going back to the well despite them failing to bring in the bacon last night.
New York's bats have just been a little quiet the first couple of games in this series, but they had scored 18 runs against Detroit in the previous 3 games here, while I think the batting line up has experienced success against Jake Arrieta.
I also don't know whether Ivan Nova does some sort of 'run dance' before he goes out to pitch, but the Yankees have rained them down for him, scoring at an average of 8.05 runs per game over Nova's last 20 starts.
My biggest concern is that the Orioles get hold of Nova early, but he has enjoyed success against them in the past, including earlier this season, so I will take the 2.20 that the Yankees win by a couple of runs at least.
The Pick :
New York Yankees 6-3 Baltimore Orioles
