MLB Baseball
2020-09-29 - Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Baseball : United States MLB PlayOffs Wild Card Game 1
Tuesday 29th September 2020 - Scheduled 2pm
7pm (British Time)
Preview
The new Major League Baseball PlayOff format was going to give some perhaps undeserving team a chance to play in the post-season and one team in both the American League and National League have earned a spot in the PlayOffs despite finishing with a losing record. In the American League, which opens its three game Wild Card Series on Tuesday, it is the Houston Astros who have earned that spot with a losing record and there will be plenty cheering for an early exit for them.
The controversy that erupted after it was found out that Houston had been sign-stealing through their years at the top of the game has put this team on the back foot. They have simply not been as good in 2020 as they have been in recent years and most are looking to put that down to the fact they can't cheat as they had been doing.
One benefit for the Astros of playing without crowds is that the players have been able to focus on their Baseball, although that didn't prevent them finishing two games under 0.500 in the shortened season. They are only the Number 6 Seed because they finished second in the American League West and the Astros will be heading into this Series as a significant underdog.
They go up against the Number 3 Seed Minnesota Twins who are looking to snap a bit of unwanted history when they take to the field on Tuesday. The Twins have lost their last sixteen PlayOff games in a row, although their scourge has been the New York Yankees who have beaten them thirteen times in that run.
The Twins finished twelve games above 0.500 for the season and they will benefit by being the host team at a ballpark where they ended with a 24-7 record in 2020. It is a short Series with the first to two wins progressing to the next stage, so it is no surprise that the Twins will be turning to Kenta Maeda to get them off to a strong start.
Kenta Maeda was a Los Angeles Dodgers player when they were beaten by the Houston Astros in the World Series, but he does not hold any grudges even if the cheating effectively cost him a ring. Instead the pitcher is looking to focus on his performance on the mound in the opener of this Series and Maeda should be confident having finished the regular season with a 6-1 record from eleven starts made.
The pitcher had a 2.70 ERA and a really strong 0.75 WHIP and that will give his team confidence that he can lay the platform for success in this one. One concern is that Kenta Maeda gave up three runs in three of his last five outings for the Twins, but he had a strong season and played well in relief when last seeing the Houston Astros in the World Series.
Minnesota will be well aware that they need Maeda to bring his best as they go up against Zack Greinke of the Houston Astros. The veteran pitcher continues to play at a high level having produced a 3-3 record from his twelve starts this season and compiling a 4.03 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
While the numbers on their own look pretty good, Greinke has actually slipped a little bit from the kind of level he has produced in each of the last three seasons. There were also signs that he might be having a few more problems down the stretch when giving up at least three runs in seven consecutive starts for the Houston Astros and the pitcher is going to have to be careful with the power hitting the Minnesota Twins batting line up can produce.
Both batting line ups have been a touch inconsistent down the stretch, but I do think Kenta Maeda can exert more control than Zack Greinke in this one. The latter has a 1-4 record with a 5.14 ERA from his seven previous starts in this ballpark and I do think the Twins are the better team.
Minnesota took three of four games at home against the Houston Astros when these teams last met in May 2019, but the turnover of players and the cheating scandal which erupted in Houston makes this a different set of circumstances for players to deal with.
Houston are 6-18 in their last twenty-four games when set as the road underdog and that does not bode well against the Twins in this ballpark.
Prediction
The two starting pitchers deserve plenty of respect ahead of this one and I do think they can give their teams an opportunity.
The feeling is that Minnesota being at home and with the stronger batting line up can come up trumps here and snap their long, long losing run in the PlayOffs.
It won't come easy, but Kenta Maeda might just be able to out-duel Zack Greinke and I will look for the Twins to move into a 1-0 lead in this best of three game Series.
The Pick :
Minnesota Twins 5-2 Houston Astros
