MLB Baseball
2025-09-30 - Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : MLB Baseball Playoff Wild Card Game 1
Tuesday 30th September 2025 - Scheduled 1:08pm
6:08pm (British Time)
Preview
An epic collapse from the Detroit Tigers (87-75) was completed on the final day of the regular season, although the one positive is that the team have found a way to sneak into the Playoffs. At one stage it looked like the Detroit Tigers could have finished with the Number 1 Seed in the American League, but instead they enter the post-season as the Number 6 Seed.
Taking advantage of the collapse was the Cleveland Guardians (88-74) who overturned a 10.5 game deficit that was faced by the team at the beginning of September.
Backing up the historical collapse is the odds- Detroit were huge favourites to win the Division and Cleveland were 81.00 when September began, but the Guardians beat the Tigers five times over the last few weeks, which aided them overturning the lead.
Now the Tigers have to visit Cleveland for this Wild Card Series and they concluded the final month of the regular season by putting together the worst record in September for any Playoff team since the World Series was first played (according to the historical research).
Detroit will at least be able to give the ball to Tarik Skubal to open this Series after the pitcher put together another strong regular season. His ERA improved again in 2025 compared with 2024, which is pretty impressive, and Skubal is going to be key for the Tigers considering the issues some of the other starters have had down the stretch.
Tarik Skubal did suffer the decision loss in half of his last six starts and he had a 3.52 ERA in his last three regular season starts. Two of those were against the Cleveland Guardians and Tarik Skubal was 0-1 with a 1.50 ERA in those outings, while the first two starts in 2025 against the Guardians covered 16 Innings without the ace pitcher giving up a single run.
Last season Tarik Skubal pitched against the Cleveland Guardians on two occasions in the Divisional Round of the Playoff- he did not factor into the decision in the first of those, despite keeping the Guardians scoreless in 7 Innings, but Skubal was saddled with five runs in the decisive Game 5 and was given the decision loss.
Cleveland will counter with Gavin Williams who finished the regular season with a 12-5 record and 3.06 ERA and who earned consecutive decision wins against the Tigers over the last two weeks. Gavin Williams threw 11 Innings in those two starts and allowed two runs, while he completed 6 Innings in keeping Detroit scoreless back in July too.
In one Playoff start last year, Gavin Williams was withdrawn in the Third Inning as he allowed three runs in Game 4 of the Championship Series against the New York Yankees.
This will be the seventh game between the Tigers and Guardians in September- Cleveland won the first five of those before Detroit won the most recent.
Prediction
In recent years, the bullpen has been massively important to teams involved in the Playoffs and that has seen the average time spent on the mound by starters shortening.
Both Tarik Skubal and Gavin Williams will be looking to change some of that narrative in the first game of the 2025 Playoffs and they have plenty of experience of facing the opposition batting lineup.
With the Cleveland Guardians overturning a historical deficit to win the American League Central Division, the momentum is with the underdog in the opening game of this Wild Card Series. They beat the Detroit Tigers five times in six games this month and that includes the Guardians winning two games started by Tarik Skubal.
Gavin Williams has been pitching this past month and has helped the Guardians win two of those games against the Detroit Tigers. There may also be a bit more faith in the bullpen, while the Guardians batting lineup have been playing with more consistency than the long-time American League Central leaders and it leaves the home team looking a big price to win Game 1 of this Series.
The Pick :
Cleveland Guardians 3-1 Detroit Tigers
