MLB Baseball

2025-09-30 - Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
United States : MLB Baseball Playoff Wild Card Game 1
Tuesday 30th September 2025 - Scheduled 6:08pm
11:08pm (British Time)

Preview

Losing the season tie-breaker to the Toronto Blue Jays ultimately proved costly for the New York Yankees (94-68)- instead of earning a Bye through to the Divisional Round and holding the Number 1 Seed, the New York Yankees will have to win this Wild Card Series as the Number 4 Seed.

They didn't just struggle against the Blue Jays, but the Yankees also had issues playing another Divisional rival in the Boston Red Sox (89-73) and that makes this a fascinating Wild Card Series.

All six American League teams involved in the post-season have to be confident in their chances of making the World Series, but there is little room for error in the Wild Card Round. This Round is played in a best of three game setting with all of the games hosted by the higher Seed, but it also means there is plenty of pressure on the starting pitchers.

The Yankees will open Game 1 by handing the ball to Max Fried who finished with a 19-5 record and 2.86 ERA in his first season in New York. There is no doubting the experience that Max Fried holds with this being his eighth consecutive season pitching in the Playoffs, but he has been one and done in each of the last three seasons as a member of the Atlanta Braves.

Max Fried was the pitcher in Game 6 of the 2021 World Series and he was the decision winner as the Braves took home the title, but the pitcher is 0-2 with an 11.57 in the last three Playoff starts.

The pitcher was key in pushing the New York Yankees towards the top of the American League and Max Fried finished with a 6-0 record and a 1.55 ERA in his last seven starts. He pitched twice against the Boston Red Sox in that run and Max Fried only allowed two runs in a little over 11 Innings thrown.

The Red Sox will counter with Garrett Crochet who finished the regular season with an 18-5 record and 2.59 ERA in first season with the team.

He has not given up a single Playoff run in four previous appearances, although Garrett Crochet had only been asked to record a few outs across those and this is going to be a first post-season start.

Garrett Crochet is 4-0 in five September starts, but he has been operating with a 3.55 ERA in those outings. One of those was a victory over the New York Yankees when giving up three runs in 6 Innings thrown, and Garrett Crochet has now allowed just five runs across the last 21 Innings against this Divisional rival.

The pitcher did allow five runs in 6 Innings thrown in the first start against the Yankees, but the Boston batting lineup still rewarded Garrett Crochet with a victory and he is 3-0 in four starts against them. He has already spoken about the comfort level of facing a batting lineup that he has seen so many times this season.

Boston won nine of the thirteen games played against New York in the regular season, but they had lost three in a row before winning the last game in mid-September.

Prediction

This is perhaps the one Wild Card opponent the New York Yankees did not want to see having struggled to beat the Boston Red Sox in the regular season.

Confidence will come from the fact they had won three in a row against the old rivals before dropping the last game earlier this month.

The Yankees will also have faith in Max Fried after the strong run he put together to conclude the regular season. His post-season issues is a concern, but Fried has also pitched well against this batting lineup and his team have momentum.

Boston have also been playing well and will have full belief in Garrett Crochet, even if the end of the season was a touch more inconsistent. He has found the right answers against the New York Yankees regularly, and that makes this a fascinating Game 1.

The bullpen use is going to be important with neither team likely to be waiting too long in order to secure the opening win.

The Red Sox record against the New York Yankees in 2025 makes them very dangerous, but the home team have the Playoff experience edge and that may see them make the right decisions to narrowly win the opening Wild Card Game.