MLB Baseball
2025-10-10 - Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : MLB Baseball Playoff Divisional Series Game 5
Friday 10th October 2025 - Scheduled 8:08pm
1:08am (British Time)
Preview
The Toronto Blue Jays are waiting in the American League Championship Series, but the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners have to win this Game 5 'winner takes all' contest to earn their spot opposite the American League East Winners.
Both teams have earned one road win and one home win in this Series and it is the Seattle Mariners who have home advantage for the deciding game.
However, the Detroit Tigers have Tarik Skubal going to the mound for a second time in this Series and the ace pitcher is certainly going to be confident. He has not had the best fortune against the Mariners this season, but only allowed two runs in Game 2 of this Series and Skubal was able to bamboozle the batting lineup on his way to Striking Out nine.
No one will be doubting the qualities of Tarik Skubal, but the Seattle Mariners can take some inspiration from the Playoffs of 2024.
Tarik Skubal pitched in Game 2 and Game 5 of the Divisional Round Series in 2024 and he did not allow a single run in the first of those. However, he was knocked around for five runs in 6 Innings thrown in Game 5 and picked up the decision loss and the Mariners will back themselves to find the Hits needed.
It certainly helps that the Mariners have had some success against Skubal in the regular season and this is a deeper batting lineup from what has been seen in the Series through four games.
Seattle's starting rotation have a much better ERA when pitching at home and they are still deciding on whether to go with George Kirby or Luis Castillo. Those two were the starters in Game 1 and Game 2 respectively, and there is every chance that both will be used in this one, but it feels like a key decision even if Kirby and Castillo both have pitched well in this Series and in this ballpark all season.
Out of the two pitchers, Luis Castillo certainly had less contact, but he was not as strong with his command. He will have to be ready to come out of the bullpen with every arm available for this Game 5 with the season on the line.
Prediction
This has been a fascinating Series and it looked to be coming to a conclusion when the Seattle Mariners took a 3-0 lead in Game 4.
Credit has to be given to the Detroit Tigers for rallying to turn that situation around, but they are going to have a tough time hitting in this ballpark where the Mariners pitching rotation has been stronger.
Tarik Skubal will keep the Tigers in the game, but he is also facing the Mariners again very quickly and that was a bad spot for him in the Divisional Round of the post-season in 2024.
The ace has also had some tough moments facing this Seattle batting lineup and it makes the home team appealing at odds against.
Finding a prop angle is not easy considering the uncertainty about who will start for the Seattle Mariners.
The Strike Out number expected for Tarik Skubal is set pretty high, but that could go either way, while finding the players who might make an impact against the ace is far from easy.
One angle that could play out is backing Kerry Carpenter to hit a Home Run for the Detroit Tigers.
That is especially the case if George Kirby starts- Carpenter has five career Hits against Kirby and all have ended in Home Runs. He also has a Home Run against Luis Castillo and Kerry Carpenter is 5.75 to find a deep ball impact in this Game 5 decider.
Of course those working in analytics for the Mariners will be aware of Carpenter's numbers and may choose to pitch around him, but he should have at least three chances to try and push the Detroit Offensive power.
The Pick :
Seattle Mariners 3-2 Detroit Tigers
