MLB Baseball
2025-10-15 - Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : MLB Playoff American League Championship Series Game 3
Wednesday 15th October 2025 - Scheduled 8:08pm
1:08am (British Time)
Preview
The win over the New York Yankees will have taken an emotional toll on the Toronto Blue Jays, but there was a real feeling they had gotten past the biggest hurdle they would be facing before the World Series. However, all of a sudden the Blue Jays are in a significant hole in this American League Championship Series having dropped both games at home.
Three games are to be played at the home of the Seattle Mariners and the team with a 2-0 lead in this Series won 51/81 home games played in the regular season. They are also 2-1 here in the Playoffs and Mariners fans will certainly be dreaming about ending the long wait to see their team play in the World Series.
However, the experienced Mitch Garver has been warning his team-mates that nothing is decided after bringing back a 2-0 lead.
He has been playing as the Designated Hitter this season and Garver was a member of the Texas Rangers in 2023 when all seven ALCS games were won by the road team.
Focusing on Game 3 and not thinking about the wins on Toronto nor how close the Mariners are to making the World Series is the key, but the players are human and that will be a test for them. The fans should make it a vibrant atmosphere in which Seattle can thrive as they have all season and they will certainly be confident with the starting pitcher heading to the mound.
George Kirby gave up three runs in 10 Innings thrown against the Detroit Tigers in the Divisional Round and he was able to hang with Tarik Skubal in those games. That only makes his performance on the mound even more impressive and Kirby was very comfortable at T-Mobile Park all season.
He did not face the Blue Jays in the regular season, but George Kirby will have something to prove having compiled a 0-1 record and 6.28 ERA in three previous starts against this opponent.
The Blue Jays will counter by handing the ball to Shane Bieber who gave up two earned runs and was unable to get out of the Third Inning in his Divisional Round start against the New York Yankees.
After only recently returning from Tommy John Surgery, Shane Bieber is pitching on the road for just the fourth time. He has allowed ten runs in just shy of 21 Innings thrown and the Blue Jays will be keeping the bullpen warmed up and ready to go if Shane Bieber has any early problems again.
Shane Bieber has a very strong career record against the Seattle Mariners and he is 2-2 with a 2.30 ERA in seven starts against them. Like his counterpart, Bieber has not faced the Mariners this season.
Prediction
With a day of rest between games, the two bullpens should be ready to come out and do what is needed in this game and that should ease some of the pressure on the starting pitchers.
Both George Kirby and Shane Bieber are very capable of getting through the Innings in what is the best 'pitcher park' in the Major League.
However, Kirby has historically struggled against the Toronto Blue Jays and Shane Bieber is still trying to get back to his very best and has had issues on the road in the four previous starts made outside of Toronto.
The Mariners bats have certainly been operating much warmer than the Toronto Blue Jays and players should be more comfortable in this tough park for batters compared with the road team.
However, Toronto swept a three game series here in May and they did not have too many issues piling up the runs across those games. We have not really seen the Blue Jays find their rhythm so far in this ALCS though and Seattle may just have enough of an edge to secure a third straight win and move to a win away from playing in the World Series for the first time.
The numbers don't lie and this is a tough place for batters to produce their best.
Prop betting the Strike Outs could make some sense with George Kirby's line sitting at 4.5- he has managed to take out at least six batters in this way in each of his last four home starts and Seattle's home has a tendency to produce more Strike Outs than others.
Jorge Polanco is having a big post-season and he has plenty of experience of facing Shane Bieber and a decent return from those At-Bats.
He can put a Hit on the board in Game 3 as can Nathan Lukes for the Toronto Blue Jays for a double price of 2.50.
The Pick :
Seattle Mariners 5-3 Toronto Blue Jays
