MLB Baseball
2026-07-26 - San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : Major League Baseball
Sunday 26th July 2026 - Scheduled 1:40pm EST
6:40pm (British Time)
Preview
After two wins from two games in this series, the San Diego Padres (52-53) and Miami Marlins (52-53) share the same record, but the confidence levels will be completely different. Those wins have just begun to turn things back around for the Padres who will be chasing a Wild Card place with just 3 games between them and those places in the National League, but the Miami Marlins will be really disappointed with how July has been working out.
The Marlins looked like a team that could upset the odds and challenge for the National League East Divisional crown, but they have lost eleven in a row. That means they are now 9.5 games out of the lead in the Division and have also fallen 3 games out of the Wild Card places and Miami need something to show management that they should not decimate the roster through trades.
It will be up to Janson Junk to try and lay the foundation for Miami to snap this losing run and give the team some momentum to take into the final full week before the trade deadline. However, Janson Junk has a 4-6 record and 5.09 ERA in thirteen starts this season and he has been struggling for any consistency in recent outings.
Across the last six starts, Janson Junk has managed to hold teams to less than two runs twice, although the other four games have ended with the pitcher giving up at least four runs in his time on the mound. Janson Junk was roughed up for six runs in his last outing and that saw him pick up the decision loss and snap a run of back to back decision wins.
This will be the first time Janson Junk is starting a game against the San Diego Padres, who will be turning to Walker Buehle to start this one.
Walker Buehle has a 6-5 record and 5.23 ERA in twenty starts in 2026 and this is a pitcher who has been inconsistent in the last couple of years. He is another starter who has struggled in July having begun the month with a 0-2 record and 16.36 ERA in three starts, but Walker Buehle will have appreciated the All Star Break splitting things up when it did.
In one start since the All Star Game, Walker Buehle held the Atlanta Braves to two runs in just shy of 6 completed Innings and he did pick up the decision win.
Last year, in the final regular season start of the 2025 season, Walker Buehle kept the Miami Marlins scoreless in 5 Innings thrown and picked up the decision win as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies.
San Diego have outscored Miami 11-4 in winning the opening two games of this series.
Prediction
Both starting pitchers have been struggling for consistency on the mound and that may give the batters the edge in this game between the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins.
The home team have been struggling and the eleven straight defeats have dented confidence, but Miami can play their part in a game that can surpass the total run line set.
Of course Walker Buehle and Janson Junk have shown they can be very good when at the best level, but the Padres and Marlins batting lineup can take advantage of any slip from that standard.
The Pick :
Miami Marlins 4-5 San Diego Padres
