MLB Baseball
2026-09-29 - Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : MLB Playoff Wild Card Game 1
Tuesday 29th September 2026 - Scheduled 10pm EST
3am (British Time)
Preview
The Chicago Cubs have to be feeling pretty confident about this Wild Card Series, even if they have to play on the road. Last year they beat the San Diego Padres in a Wild Card Series that needed to have all three games played, while the Cubs have won the last five regular season games against the Padres in 2026 after dropping the opener.
However, the last of those regular season games was played before American Independence Day and the San Diego Padres were amongst the hottest teams in the Major League after the All Star Break.
The improved consistency saw the Padres surge into the top Wild Card spot and means having the opportunity to host the Cubs.
San Diego's return to the Playoff will begin by handing the ball to Michael King who finished the regular season with a 12-10 record and 3.21 ERA in thirty-two starts. He has been a solid starter in his three years with the Padres having begun his Major League career mainly as a reliever with the New York Yankees.
Michael King did see a five game unbeaten run ended emphatically by the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last start when allowing five runs in 4 Innings thrown. That was a start on the road and King will take confidence from the fact he has allowed a single earned run in 19 Innings across the last three starts made at Petco Park.
This is the first time Michael King will be starting against the Chicago Cubs, but he did throw a single Inning without giving up a run during the Wild Card Series between the teams in 2025. The previous season Michael King started two Playoff games for the San Diego Padres and finished with a 2-0 record and 3.75 ERA after two very different performances.
The Cubs have a powerful batting lineup, which makes them dangerous, and they will be giving the ball to Matthew Boyd who has a 10-5 record and 3.91 ERA in his twenty-two starts made this season. The veteran has enjoyed his two seasons in the National League with the Cubs and Boyd allowed just two runs in the last 12 Innings thrown in the regular season to earn consecutive decision wins.
Matthew Boyd started twice against the San Diego Padres in the regular season and finished with a 1-0 record, despite allowing eight runs in 9 Innings thrown. His start at Petco Park ended with Boyd allowing five runs in 4 Innings thrown, but he did not factor into the decision on that day in late April.
Last year, Matthew Boyd pitched into the 5th Inning and allowed a single run to the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, but did not factor into the decision. The experienced pitcher has started six Playoff games in the last two years and Matthew Boyd has a 0-1 record, but an impressive 1.69 ERA in those.
Prediction
This is going to be an interesting Wild Card Series and the winning team will believe they can cause problems for any opponent as long as they participate in the Playoff.
Matthew Boyd's last couple of years in Playoff action is very impressive, but San Diego have found a way to get after him in the 2026 regular season.
That was especially the case when the teams met here and the Chicago Cubs may not be able to cool down the hard charging Padres.
Michael King is not as experienced as Boyd, but he has been pitching really well at Petco Park and that may give the home team the edge to just about move into a 1-0 lead.
The Pick :
San Diego Padres 3-2 Chicago Cubs
