MLB Baseball
2026-10-07 - Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : MLB Playoff Divisional Round Game 3
Wednesday 7th October 2026 - Scheduled 8pm EST
1am (British Time)
Preview
After narrowly losing Game 1 of the Divisional Round Series, the New York Yankees turned to the 'ace' of the starting pitching rotation.
They would have been confident of returning home with at least a split of the first two games against the Tampa Bay Rays, but the Yankees played awful Defense right out of the gate. Three Errors in the 1st Inning will have felt unacceptable and it put Cam Schlittler in a difficult spot on the mound.
Further mistakes allowed the Rays to break the game open and the Yankees return to New York on the brink of another Divisional Round elimination at the hands of the American League East Winners.
There is going to be a considerable amount of pressure on the entire team when they head out for Game 3 and the Yankees will be hoping they can perform better on the field to help Max Fried. The pitcher put together another strong regular season in his second season with the Yankees, but there is little room for error and that does build its own pressure.
Playoff experience will count for something and Max Fried is pitching in the post-season for the ninth year in a row. He restricted the Boston Red Sox to a single run in 6 Innings thrown in the Wild Card Round, but Max Fried was rocked for seven runs in 3 Innings thrown in the 2025 Divisional Round Series Game 4 against the Toronto Blue Jays when trying to help the Yankees force a decider.
Max Fried pitched twice against the Tampa Bay Rays this season and he allowed seven runs in just under 15 Innings thrown. The most recent of those starts came in the final regular season appearance when Max Fried allowed four runs in one Out away from concluding the 7th Inning against the Rays and that was a game played in this ballpark.
The Rays will be very happy with the current position and have felt they match up pretty well with the Yankees, even with the regular season head to head in mind.
All of the pressure is on the hosts, but the Tampa Bay Rays will not want to return to Tropicana Field until the American League Championship Series is set to begin.
They will give the ball to Nick Martinez who finished the regular season with a 15-6 record and 3.10 ERA in his thirty-one starts made. This is the first season he has spent with Tampa Bay and the first Nick Martinez can call himself a full time Major League starter.
Nick Martinez was a member of the bullpen when the San Diego Padres reached the National League Championship Series in 2022 and also pitched out of the bullpen for the Cincinnati Reds in last year's Playoffs. In that appearance for the Reds, Martinez only managed to record a single Out and gave up three earned runs, but starting in the post-season is another challenge to overcome.
The veteran did pitch twice at Yankee Stadium this season and finished with a 0-1 record having allowed just three runs in 12 Innings thrown. He also held New York to a single run in just under 5 Innings thrown at home before those starts in this ballpark.
The Yankees did win three of four at home against the Tampa Bay Rays last month, but have not beaten this Divisional rival three times in a row this season.
Prediction
Both Max Fried and Nick Martinez have enjoyed strong regular seasons, but they have not always found the best form against the opponent they are facing in Game 3 of this Divisional Round Series.
Most of the pressure has to be on the shoulders of Fried and the New York Yankees, but the Tampa Bay Rays will want to close this Series at the first attempt.
New York's Offensive power did not travel to Florida, but they did rack up eighteen runs in beating the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card Round. That will give them confidence against a relatively inexperienced Playoff pitcher like Nick Martinez, although the Rays will feel pretty comfortable facing Max Fried having knocked him around a little bit in the regular season.
The expectation is that the Yankees will force a Game 4, like they did against the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2025 Playoffs.
However, Tampa Bay are unlikely to be quietened down with the bats forcing the Yankees to play good Defense and this could be a game that surpasses the total game line set.
The Pick :
New York Yankees 5-4 Tampa Bay Rays
