MLB Baseball
2026-10-07 - Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : MLB Playoff Divisional Round Game 4
Wednesday 7th October 2026 - Scheduled 10pm EST
3am (British Time)
Preview
There had been questions around the Milwaukee Brewers trade plans and the failure to bring in another class starting pitcher that could have backed up the two already on the roster. Dustin May would have been an acceptable fourth name on the rotation, but he has been pitching in Game 3 and that means the Brewers are going to lean on the bullpen to avoid having to return home for a deciding game in this Divisional Round Series.
An early exit from the Playoff will be really difficult to explain and is likely going to lead to plenty of criticism for the management, but Milwaukee are still leading the San Diego Padres 2-1 in this Series. They may have dropped Game 3 in another close contest, but the Brewers had been looking the stronger team and were perhaps a Hit away from sweeping the Series.
However, it does mean they are going to turn to a number of arms out of the bullpen to manage Game 4 and it feels increasingly likely that the majority of the Innings will be handed to Robert Gasser. He actually made twenty starts in the regular season and the third year pitcher finished with a 3.87 ERA from his twenty-one appearances in 2026, but there is not a lot of experience to fall back upon and that may mean bringing Gasser out of the bullpen for a long relief spot.
Robert Gasser has actually pitched in the post-season twice before with both occasions being as a reliever. Those outings in 2025 saw Gasser finish up with a 6.75 ERA in just under 3 Innings thrown, but the Brewers may be asking a bit more from him in Game 4 of the 2026 Divisional Round.
There will be a confidence in the pitching ability of Robert Gasser who finished the season with a 2-0 record and a 1.67 ERA in his last six appearances for the Brewers. One of those came as a reliever when Gasser had to replace an injured Dustin May and so this is a spot he may be comfortable with, even with a limited experience of playing out of the bullpen.
This will be the first time Robert Gasser has faced the San Diego Padres who will be feeling much better having come out on the right side of a big 9th Inning play. In the first two games, the Padres felt luck had been working against them, but the win in Game 3 will have given them a boost and a couple of pitchers returning from Paternity Leave is going to offer another shot of confidence.
Walker Buehler put together a 9-6 record and 4.63 ERA in his thirty-two starts for the San Diego Padres, and improved after the All Star Break when pitching thirteen times for a 4-1 record and 3.65 ERA. During that run, Walker Buehler gave up a single run in 6 Innings thrown against the Milwaukee Brewers at Petco Park and this is a pitch with a lot of Playoff experience to aid him.
This is going to be the twentieth time Walker Buehler has pitched in the Playoffs and nineteen of those have been as a starter. Two years ago he finished with a 3.60 ERA in four appearances in the post-season, which concluded with Walker Buehler earning a Save to help the Los Angeles Dodgers win the World Series.
The San Diego Padres will be hoping that experience can see Buehler lay the foundation for a victory in Game 4 and they will also have Mason Miller back after he missed Game 3 to witness the birth of his child.
Mason Miller has been an All Star Closer, but there had been suggestions he had been tipping his pitches when giving up the game winning runs to the Brewers in Game 2. The pitcher himself doubts that, but San Diego are not going to be asking Miller to earn more than three Outs in this one just to be on the safe side.
Prediction
All three games in this Divisional Round Series have come down to big plays to be made in the 9th Inning and the San Diego Padres have to be feeling really glad to still be alive in the post-season.
Beating the Milwaukee Brewers is never going to be an easy task considering how well the Number 1 Seed have played all season, but the road team will be relying on the bullpen to avoid having to host a decider.
Robert Gasser has had a strong season, but he has not faced San Diego and has little Playoff experience compared with Walker Buehler and that may give the Padres the edge.
Another competitive game is expected, but San Diego may do just enough to force a Game 5 decider later this week.
The Pick :
San Diego Padres 3-2 Milwaukee Brewers
