NBA Basketball
2012-03-25 - Miami Heat at Oklahoma City
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Sunday 25 March 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is actually a crucial game between two teams that, although in different Conferences, could have a huge bearing over who would hold home field advantage in the NBA Conference Finals. The Oklahoma City Thunder (36-12) are still the Number 1 seed in the Western Conference, but they have been faltering of late and could be overtaken by San Antonio or the LA Lakers down the stretch.
The Miami Heat (35-11) still trail the Chicago Bulls in the Eastern Conference and, while they openly say they are not bothered whether they finish Number 1 or Number 2, they have indicated that playing a Game 7 of the NBA Finals at home would be significant.
The teams are playing each other twice in the next couple of weeks, once here and once in Miami, and the Heat are looking to keep their recent good record on the road intact, although they have suffered some big defeats at Chicago, Orlando, the LA Lakers and Utah in recent weeks.
Oklahoma City were recently just 5-5 in their games before a couple of back to back wins at home, the last needing double Overtime to overcome the struggling Minnesota Timberwolves. They now have a tough few games coming up, including against the LA Lakers, but the arrival of Derek Fisher has at least given them some more experience to deal with these moments.
The Thunder have been very strong at home all season, while Kevin Durant, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James have all played very well when on the same court. Durant averages 32.2 points per game in his last 5 matches against the Heat, while James has 28.6 points per game in 14 against the Thunder and Wade has 28.6 over his last 7 against Oklahoma City.
Head to Head
Oklahoma City are 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in the last 4 games in the series.
However, they are just 1-5 both straight up and against the spread in their last 6 at home against Miami.
Oklahoma City are 13-12 against the spread at home this season, Miami are 12-12 on the road.
Oklahoma City are 23-21 against the spread as the favourite, Miami are 1-0 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Oklahoma City are just 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 3-13 against the spread in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record on the road.
Miami are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
Prediction
I am going to take the points and back the Miami Heat to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Miami have a very good record at Oklahoma City and have been very effective at winning straight up here.
Second, Oklahoma City have struggled with the expectation to beat the better teams in the NBA, especially when they are considered as the short favourite.
Third, the Thunder have been in poor form in recent weeks and this is a big game for them. They are just 7-5 in their last 12 games and play one of the best teams, if not THE best team, in the NBA.
The Pick :
Oklahoma City 96-97 Miami Heat
