NBA Basketball
2012-04-02 - Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Monday 2 April 2012 - Tip Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Milwaukee Bucks (24-28) find themselves 2.5 games behind the New York Knicks in the race for the final Play Off berth in the Eastern Conference and they need to take advantage of this part of their schedule where they have 4 games in a row against teams with losing records.
The first of those comes against the Washington Wizards (12-40) who have one of the worst records in the NBA this season. They were short-handed last night in a loss to the Toronto Raptors on the road and they are going to be in the same situation tonight.
Both Nene and Trevor Booker, starters regularly, were missing last night and are expected to miss out again tonight. Their absence means the Wizards have to play a younger team than they would like to, although they are certain to be entering the lottery in the draft.
Jordan Crawford has averaged 21.5 points per game this season against Washington. The Wizards will hope he can continue that form, while also hoping the defence continues their stellar play that has prevented teams reaching 100 points in 9 straight games.
Milwaukee have won 9 of their last 13 games, but they were beaten by Memphis in their last game and need to get back on the horse as soon as this game if they are to push forward for their chance in the Play Offs.
Brandon Jennings and Drew Gooden continue playing well for the Bucks, but Monta Ellis has struggled since his trade from Golden State, averaging 7 points less per game on his season average. One aspect they will look to improve on is their rebounding from the last game against Memphis when the Grizzlies led that category 58-39.
Head to Head
Milwaukee beat Washington by one point at home around 6 weeks ago, although it was the Wizards who covered the number.
The Bucks are 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series, while they are 2-1 in their last 3 visits to the nation's Capital.
Washington are 9-16-1 against the spread at home this season, Milwaukee are 14-14 on the road.
Washington are 17-25-1 as the underdog, Milwaukee are 12-11 as the favourite.
Other Interesting Trends
Washington are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog given between 5 and 10.5 points.
However, they are just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record on the road.
Milwaukee have won their last 8 games against the spread against a team with a losing record.
They are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games against a team that has won less than 40% of their home games.
The Bucks are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as the favourite.
Prediction
I am going to back the Milwaukee Bucks to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, they have a decent record against Washington in recent games of the series and they have plenty more motivation than their opponents who will likely be short-handed for the second night in succession.
Second, Washington have a poor record against teams with losing records so far this season, going 9-14 against the spread in those games.
Third, Washington are just 5-8 against the spread in their last 13 games in the second of back to back nights play.
Fourth, Milwaukee are 15-9 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record this season.
The Pick :
Washington Wizards 88-97 Milwaukee Bucks
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Milwaukee Bucks - 7 Points @ 1.95
