NBA Basketball
2012-05-15 - Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Semi Final
Tuesday 15 May 2012 - Tip Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
I was absolutely stunned that the Indiana Pacers failed to cover in the first game of the series against the Miami Heat as they were only trailing by a couple of points with just minutes remaining. However, they failed to hit anything down the stretch and missed the cover by half a point... That won't matter to them, but what will matter is the fact they are 1-0 down in the Semi Final and have this game before heading back home for two games.
The biggest news from game 1 was not the performance of LeBron James, who scored 32 points and also grabbed 15 rebounds, but it was all about the injury to Chris Bosh which is set to keep the the third member of the 'Big Three' out of this series at the very least.
While it does seem Bosh will be back if the Heat go on to the Eastern Conference Finals, his absence will put more pressure on the shoulders of James and Dwyane Wade to make up for the missing points on offense. It also means the 'other' players in the Miami rotation have to step up their game.
On the defensive side of the ball, it means the Indiana Pacers have an even bigger edge inside with Roy Hibbert and David West, although they seemed to come away from that despite leading by 6 points in game 1 at half time.
Indiana will look to change a couple of aspects of their game plan that cost them the win in game 1 and that is in rebounding and fouls. The Heat actually committed 9 less fouls than the Pacers, while they also had 7 extra boards than the bigger Indiana team.
Danny Granger will also be looked at by the Pacers as someone who needs to up his production having been held scoreless in the first half, his lowest total in 5 years which is a span covering 366 games.
Miami are likely going to bring in Ronny Turiaf at Center in this game and move Udonis Haslem into Chris Bosh's spot.
Head to Head
Miami improved to 4-1 straight up in the season series between the two teams and they are 3-2 against the spread in those games.
The Heat have also won their last 4 home games against the Pacers and have improved to 11-2 in the last 13 they have hosted Indiana. They also improved to 6-7 against the spread in those games.
Miami are 4-2 against the spread in the last 6 games of the series overall.
Other Interesting Trends
Miami have won their last 4 games against the spread when considered the home favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
Indiana are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog of between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 6-13 against the spread in their last 19 games following a loss.
Prediction
The spread between the teams looks very close to call, although I do favour Indiana with the points. However, I am going to back the Under 185.5 points option for the following reasons:
First, Miami are likely to concentrate on their defensive game plan even more now that Chris Bosh is out and they are losing a bunch of points on the offensive side of the court.
Second, both of these teams are solid 'Unders' teams with Indiana going 5-2 in their last 7 games and Miami going 7-2 in their last 9.
Third, the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 games between the teams in Miami.
The Pick :
Miami Heat 87-84 Indiana Pacers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Under 185.5 Points @ 2.00
