NBA Basketball
2012-05-16 - LA Lakers at Oklahoma City
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off Semi Final
Wednesday 16 May 2012 - Tip Off 9:30pm ET
2:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder absolutely blew the LA Lakers out of the water in game 1, but you have to take into consideration that the older Lakers team was coming in off a seven game series with the Denver Nuggets and looked physically exhausted. This game is already a very important one for the Lakers as they cannot afford to go down 2-0 if they have serious ambitions of making it to the Western Conference Finals.
Oklahoma City looked like a team that was well rested and fully motivated, especially in the manner their last regular season game with the Lakers had ended. They only had 4 turnovers, far less than the 16 they averaged throughout the season, while they were making jumpers from all over the court.
Tonight they could be missing Kendrick Perkins who re-aggravated an injury that had kept him from practice in the eight days between the sweep of the Dallas Mavericks and game 1 of this series. Perkins status is up in the air at the time of writing, but he will at least be limited if not rested altogether for the trip to Los Angeles.
Derek Fisher also looked plenty motivated when facing his former team and all in all it was a perfect game played by the Thunder.
However, don't be so quick to rule out the Lakers who have taken the loss in their stride. Kobe Bryant was quick to point out that the team has suffered blow-out losses before this season, including twice against the Denver Nuggets in the First Round series.
Bryant was also quick to point out that the Lakers will look to make the necessary adjustments to at least make this a series. Mike Brown has already said the team need to defend the pick and roll moves the Thunder use with more speed to contest the jumpers after they allowed too many open looks in game 1. There will also be adjustments on the offensive side of the court as they look to get their bigs more action.
Head to Head
Oklahoma City have improved to 3-1 in the season series between the teams both straight up and against the spread. That means the Thunder are now 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series.
The Thunder have won their last 2 home games against LA, although they had lost their previous 2 games here before that.
Oklahoma City are actually 5-2 straight up in the last 7 games at home in the series, while they are 6-1-1 against the spread in the last 8 games here.
Other Interesting Trends
Oklahoma City are now 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games against a team with a winning record.
LA Lakers are now 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog given between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are just 6-17 against the spread in their last 23 games when playing on one days rest between games.
Prediction
I have gone back and forth on this game for a couple of days, but have decided I will take the points and back the LA Lakers to at least keep this game close in a must-win situation for them. I like the Lakers for the following reasons:
First, the Lakers have been blown out a few times this season, losing 12 previous games by double-digits and they have bounced back to go 8-4 against the spread in their next game. They are 21-15 against the spread in that spot over the last three seasons.
Second, the Oklahoma City have struggled in their games following a great offensive performance. The Thunder are 7-17 against the spread in their games following a performance where they have scored at least 105 points.
Third, since 1991, if the hosts are favoured by more than 7 points in game 2 they have gone 12-16-1 against the spread.
Fourth, since 1991, if the hosts surpassed their last spread by more than 6 points, they are 12-16 against the spread.
The Pick :
Oklahoma City 97-94 LA Lakers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the LA Lakers + 8 Points @ 1.95
