ENGLISH FA CUP BETTING PICK - CHELSEA V IPSWICH TOWN

English FA CUP

2011-01-09 - Chelsea vs Ipswich Town

A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps

Sunday 9th January

Chelsea

Last 5 Chelsea games at home : W2-D2-L1 F6-A7

Carlo Ancelotti's Chelsea come into this FA Cup third round tie with 1 league win in 9 games. The confidence is shot to pieces, from the unbeatables at the start of the season are VERY much beatable now. Normally we see these games as an easy home win for a side like Chelsea but this is going to be a battle and with Ancelotti's job very much on the line, this is a must win for the Blues.

After beating Bolton 1-0 to halt a 6 game run without a victory, many believed the bad run was over and Chelsea would return to winning ways. Yet, this has not been the case, Chelsea followed the 1-0 win with a 3-3 draw against Villa in a game that the Blues scored late to lead 3-2 only to concede an injury equaliser.

Finally, Chelsea followed that disappointing result with a 1-0 away loss at Wolves in a game that has practically ended their title hopes in my opinion. All that remains is the FA Cup and the Champions League for Ancelotti's men with the former coming up next as Chelsea host Ipswich Town on Sunday afternoon in the Third round of the FA Cup.

After watching Chelsea for the past few months there are clear problems both defensively and offensively. For example at the back in the last 9 games overall just one clean sheet has been kept and shock horror Chelsea won that game! At the other end, from scoring goals for fun at the start of the season only once in the last 11 games has Chelsea scored 2 or more in a game (3-3 draw v Villa).

Until the 3-3 draw on each of the 8 occasions that Chelsea scored 2 goals or more Ancelotti's men went on to win the game with a goals for of 27 and goals against of 2! The 100% record is gone when scoring two or more but I believe if Chelsea score two on Sunday then they surely will win the game. However, confidence is at an all time low and after the Villa game we even saw Terry and Drogba arguing so the harmony is very poor at the club right now.

Team news is that Chelsea is still without Benayoun, Alex, Zhirkov and Mikel. Early reports suggest no fresh injuries have come out of the Wolves game but despite all the pressure Ancelotti is under he may rest some players for the Ipswich game.

In goal Cech might get a rest with Hilario starting, elsewhere Ferreria will replace Bosingwa and possibly Terry being rested with Bruma starting alongside Ivanovic. Going forward Kakuta could replace Malouda whilst Anelka should start ahead of Kalou after a knee injury kept him on the bench for the Wolves game.

Predicted Chelsea Lineup :
Hilario, Cole, Bruma, Ivanovic, Ferreria, Ramires, Lampard, Essien, Anelka, Kakuta, Drogba.

Ipswich Town

Last 5 games Ipswich away : W1-D1-L3 F4-A8

Roy Keane's Ipswich Town side sits in 19th place in the Championship and like Chelsea is really struggling to get some results of late.

The poor league form needs to be put to one side as Ipswich visit Stamford Bridge in the Third Round of the FA Cup and given how poorly Ancelotti’s side is playing right now an upset could be on the cards come Sunday afternoon.

Sitting in 19th place and just 3 points above the relegation zone, many would think this game against Chelsea is not high on Roy Keane's priority list right now. However, a famous win over the current Double Winners could galvanise this team and springboard the start of long run of wins and Championship survival.

One reservation I have with Ipswich is that they face Arsenal next Wednesday 3 days after this game in the League Cup Semi Final first leg at Portman Road. The League Cup game is a bigger game for me than this one, a Wembley final place is at stake in the League Cup and knowing they must then visit Arsenal in the return leg, there's even more emphasis to win Wednesday's game. As a result I'm not entirely sure what sort of Ipswich performance we will see on Sunday at Stamford Bridge.

Ipswich come into this game very flat and low on confidence having won 1 of their last 9 league games. Within this period the Tractor Boys have lost at Hull (1-0), Norwich (4-1) and at bottom club Preston (1-0), the only positive result of late away from home was the 1-1 draw at Coventry.

The last time Ipswich beat a side on the road was back on 6th November at Sheff United winning 2-1. Travelling to the Bridge will be a tough task and despite Chelsea’s poor form it seems a task too high for Keane’s side, even more so given the game coming up on Wednesday.

Team news is that Town have been dealt a blow as promising youngster Jack Colback who has spent 18 months with the Tractor Boys during 2 loan spells was due to remain at Town for a few more weeks. However, Sunderland has recalled their loanee and as a result Ipswich will be missing a key player for the visit to Chelsea.

More bad news is that Town will be without suspended Leadbitter and Rory Fallen is cup tied. Good news is that Jake Livermore who is on loan from Spurs has been given the green light to play and will start. Defender Darren O'Dea is hoping to start as Town have also approached Celtic for clearance to play in this FA Cup tie.

Predicted Ipswich Lineup :
Fulop, Brown, McAuley, Delaney, Kennedy, Norris, Livermore, Edwards, Smith, Wickham, Scotland.

The Betting Verdict

Both sides are awful at the minute and Chelsea's price of 1.25 is disgusting and I'm going nowhere near it.

Instead I fancy the visitors on the Asian Handicap which seems very generous at 2 goals.

If Chelsea win this I don't see it coming by 3 goals, the percentages are definitely with Ipswich.

Good Luck.

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