Icelandic Football
2011-08-13 - Thor Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Football - Icelandic Cup – Final
Saturday August 13th, 2011, - Kickoff 16:00 (GMT)
This will be the 52nd Cup final. As usual the game will be played on Iceland’s national stadium, Laugardalsvollur. This year the two finalists are in quite a different position. While the former will play their first final in history the latter are one of the most experienced club in the competition.
Thor Akureyri
Thor’s fairy tale in the cup continued in the semi finals where they beat IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2-0 in a weird game. IBV started both halves with a lot of power creating many chances but still Thor managed to score the only goal in each half bringing home the ticket for the first cup final in the club’s history.
Thor have been quite lucky with the draw so far and it’s not so certain they would be here if they hadn’t had gotten the home game in all previous four rounds. It’s hard to argue against this statement looking at their poor away record in the leauge where they are 1-1-5 compared to 4-1-2 at home.
Ever since Thor changed their style of play as early as in round 3-4 in the league things have stayed much better for them and they have been collecting many points at home and scoring a number of goals. However, their defense still remains a problem and they are one of two teams in the league who have conceded the most, a total of 28 goals in 14 games, with 19 of those coming on the road.
Thor’s run on their homeground reprecents their good fortune at home in the league. In the previous four rounds in the cup they have a scoreline of 12:2 which is great considering the fact that three of their four opponents were top league clubs (Vikingur, Grindavik and IBV).
The main question for Thor Akureyri in the final will be whether they will be able to score because it’s very unlikely that they will manage to keep a clean sheet against high scoring KR side the way Thor’s defense has been playing. This is being said with the fact in mind that Thor have only scored 6 of their 21 goals in the league on the road. A little positive factor here is that they have scored in every away game exept in the first round, that is to say 1 goal in each of those six games.
Thor’s players and manager will certainly know that it’s vital that they keep their pysical tactics against fast playing and attacking KR side. They must tackle them and be very tight in the back to close down the spaces for KR, otherwise they could be in deep trouble.
KR Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik stats this season speak for themselves. After 12 games in the league, two less then most others, they are in 1st place with an overall record of 9-3-0, 28:9. They have not lost to an Icelandic side all season long in all competitions. They got into the 3rd round of qualification in the Europa league and look best of the best in the league so far.
KR’s run in the cup has been a bit easier than for Thor. In the semis they comforably beat BI/Bolungarvik 1-4 after it was 1-1 at halftime. It took some time for their second goal to come but after that it was never a question. Unlike Thor KR have played two of their cup games at home and two away. Their scoreline is almost identical to Thor, 12:3.
KR Reykjavik are regulars in the cup final. They have won the cup 11 times and this will be their 4th final in the last six years. Last year they lost quite badly to FH Hafnarfjordur 4-0. Surely they will do everything they can to make up for that.
With KR’s run this season it’s hard not to see them winning this game against Thor. They should be able to create excellent changes against a poor Thor defense. With their overall record in the league they have shown their strength both in the back and up front. If we consider this to be an away game for KR one can see that their away record in the league is even better than their home record, being 5-1-0, 14:4.
However, KR had a major setback against Vikingur in the last league round, a game they actually were quite lucky to get all three points scoring the last goal in the last minute securing a 3-2 win. Their best player and best player of the first half of the tournament, Gudmundur Reynir Oskarsson, was awarded a red card for a two footed challenge. This means he will be banned from the cup final. It’s hard to say how much this will affect KR but it could mean that their attacking might be a bit slower since Gudmundur has been very fast up and down the wing.
Head to head
KR won 3-1 at home in the league earlier this season. No other games in recent years.
The Betting Verdict
It’s a bit harsh to say a cup final can be a banker but this one goes very close to it. With Thor’s terrible away record compared to KR’s great away record and Thor’s poor defending up against KR’s great attack anything other than a KR win would be a major upset. KR will be missing their key player and this could be a factor for them.
If we look at this game as an away match for both sides we see that in the league KR have keot a clean sheet in 3 of their 6 away games and have scored in them all, more than one goal in all but one game. In comparison Thor have conceded in 6 of their 7 away games, and more than one goal in 5 of those 6. Thor have scored one goal in each of those 7 games except for one where they did not score.
KR will score, no question about it. The only question is, will Thor? If it weren’t for the possible surprise factor of the cup I would rate KR at least 70% but instead I’m bringing them down a bit, but only very little.
Since I’m having a bit of a hard time assessing whether Thor will score or not I think it’s simply safest to back KR to win in 90 mins but trying something a bit more tasty as a side bet.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Main bet :Take KR REykjavik to win @ 1.50 (Bet365)
Side bet
Since all of Thor’s five away losses were with a 2+ margin I recommend trying a handicap bet on KR(-1) @ 2.2 (Paddy Power)
