Euro 2012
2011-09-06 - England vs Wales
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : Euro 2012 Qualifier
Tuesday 6 September 2011 - Kickoff 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
England
England put one foot on the plane that will take them to Poland/Ukraine next Summer with a comprehensive win over Bulgaria on Friday. They were also given a helping hand from their neighbours, and opponents, Wales who beat Montenegro in Cardiff on the same night.
Those results means England have a 3 points lead over Montenegro in the group with 2 game left to play. They have a vastly superior goal difference that was only bolstered on Friday and will now recognise that a win would virtually secure the top spot. England still have to visit Montenegro, but would top the group if they win on Tuesday and then avoid defeat on their visit.
The win in Sofia means England have won all 3 games on their travels in this group, but it is the form at Wembley that has been a little disappointing. This is their final home game in the group, but they have won just 1 of their previous 3 games and have actually drawn their last 2 there against Montenegro and Switzerland. England have even scored more away goals than they have at home.
Darren Bent has returned to Aston Villa while Fabio Capello has indicated he is preparing some changes for this game. There is an suggestion that James Milner will come in for Theo Walcott as protection for the right back against Gareth Bale. Frank Lampard may also start after being dropped on Friday, while the likes of Wayne Rooney and Ashley Young should be able to continue their early season top form.
Leighton Baines and Micah Richards are both out so Chris Smalling could receive his 2nd cap for his country.
Wales
Gary Speed recorded his first win as Wales manager against Montenegro on Friday, although you can imagine there were a fair few fans that would not have been that happy that the result helped rivals England almost secure their place in the European Championships. Those fans will be coming to London with the full hope they can upset the England apple-cart, although it will be more hope than expectation.
Wales have a decent squad at their disposal, but injuries and suspensions has made it difficult for the team to make an impact in the group. If all the players are fit, I believe Wales are a passable side, but the depth is not as good as other nations and there can be a significant drop off of talent if the 3rd or, in some cases, 4th choice players are in the starting line up.
The win on Friday means Wales have a chance to avoid finishing bottom of the group. Their 3 point tally sees them trailing both Switzerland and Bulgaria by 2 points, and the latter has already played a game more. Wales have lost both away games in the group, a tight 1-0 defeat in Montenegro and an easy 4-1 loss in Switzerland.
James Collins is back from suspension and will take his place at the heart of the Wales defence, while Jack Collison is also available. Collison is eligible to play for England, but has a chance to earn his first cap for Wales in this game. David Vaughan and Craig Bellamy will both miss out after earning suspensions following the Friday night win.
Head to Head
England won 0-2 in Cardiff earlier in the qualifying campaign which is their 3rd win over Wales since 2000.
They last met in the qualifying campaign for the 2006 World Cup, when England won 2-0 at Wembley courtesy of goals scored by Frank Lampard and David Beckham.
Prediction
The prices on the win-draw-win market look about right with England as the big favourites, and I think the chance for the home team to virtually qualify for Euro 2012 will keep them very focused on the task in hand.
England also have a freshness about them at the moment with players like Ashley Young, Scott Parker and Stewart Downing feeling more and more part of the team since they are getting a few more chances. Young and Downing have been impressive in the early part of the season for their new clubs, and England also have an in-form striker in Wayne Rooney.
I expect Wales will play with a lot of passion, but there may be a problem with the fact that Gary Speed likes his side to play football and attack. This could lead to problems in defensive areas during the game.
I also feel Wales put in a lot of emotional effort to pick up their first win of the qualifiers and also the first win of the Speed era. All of this make leave the players feeling a little mentally fatigued and they could be in for a long night if they concede early.
Personally I am going to play a fun bet for this game, absolutely for minimum stakes, and pick England to win the game with 5 totals goals, or more, scored in the match.
It is possible England could get those goals themselves if they get off to a good start and it could be a fun way to spend the match.
Remember though, there is plenty of football coming up after these internationals are completed, so keeping stakes to a minimum is advisable.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
England 5-0 Wales
