NFL Football
2011-10-09 - Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 5
Sunday 9 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
Well, well, well, I guess the 'Dream Team' could not have foreseen this start in their nightmares as the Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) visit the surprising Buffalo Bills (3-1) with their season on the line.
Michael Vick came out and said he has had enough of hearing the 'Dream Team' tag and that the team is far from achieving their goals after signing some big name players in the offseason. These signings were supposed to push the Eagles in the conversation relating to the SuperBowl potential winners, but they have struggled to close out games and now are in a little bit of a hole in a tough NFC East.
I think it would be hard to blame the Offense which has put up big numbers, although it was the kicking of Alex Henerey that prevented the team picking up the win last week. The Offensive Line continues to have issues but the playmaking ability of Vick coupled with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy means they are still being able to move the chains.
The Eagles should get plenty of success both on the ground and through the air against this Bills Defense that is allowing 405 yards of total Offense per game and 24 points. They have struggled to get to the QB early in the season, but they can force turnovers which has allowed the team to come back from big deficits on 2 occasions already this season.
The likely scenario of the Eagles moving the chains and scoring points means it will be up to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buffalo Offense to keep up. They had been magnificant in the first 3 weeks of the season, but struggled against a tough Cincinnati Defense last week. Fitzpatrick had been averaging 280 yards per game through the air before being held to just 199 yards last week and it will be interesting how he deals with the Eagles Defense that has been pretty good against the pass this season (until the 4th Quarter at least).
A bigger player for the Bills is likely to be Fred Jackson who should be able to gash this Eagles Defense that has struggled to stop anyone on the ground. That should help move the chains and keep Fitzpatrick in 3rd and manageable situations, and will also be key to slowing down a very effective pass rush the Eagles have.
Trent Cole could be missing which would reduce the Eagles pass rush, but Justin Babin is expected to have a big game as the sack leader in the NFL, while the team is averaging 3.8 sacks per game this season.
Head to Head
Philadelphia won the last meeting between these teams in 2007 by 8 points at home, although it was Buffalo who covered the spread on that occasion.
The Eagles also won the last time they met in Buffalo, winning by 10 points back in 2003 to cover the spread as the underdog.
Buffalo are 3-1 against the spread in the last 4 meetings between the teams.
Buffalo are 2-2 against the spread this season, Philadelphia are 1-3.
Other Interesting Trends
Buffalo are 3-10-1 against the spread in their last 14 games as the home underdog.
However, they are 6-2-2 against the spread in their last 10 games as the home underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points.
They are 30-13-1 against the spread in their last 34 games against a team with a losing record.
Philadelphia are 4-9-1 against the spread in their last 14 games as the road favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.
They are 13-5 against the spread in their last 18 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
This should be an interesting game to watch on Sunday afternoon, but I will be backing the Philadelphia Eagles to cover and get back on track for the following reasons:
First, the Eagles have been losing in disappointing fashion and should really be 3-1 and I think they are a better team than the record suggests.
Second, the Eagles will be desperate to get a win here before the big game with the Washington Redskins on the road next week.
Third, Buffalo have shown their character in coming back from big deficits twice this season, but the Eagles have been given the blueprint to slowing them down by the Bengals last week.
Fourth, I expect the Eagles pass rush will cause Buffalo plenty of problems if Philadelphia get up in the game.
I have a couple of concerns too as I think the Eagles are being a touch overrated by the points they are conceding, but I do think they are close to earning a big win and this could be the week they get it.
The Pick :
Buffalo Bills 28-34 Philadelphia Eagles
