South Carolina at Mississippi State Betting pick | 2011-10-15

NCAA Football

2011-10-15 - South Carolina at Mississippi State

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

South Carolina Gamecocks @ Mississippi State Bulldogs
United States: NCAA Football Week 7
Saturday 15 October 2011 - Kick Off 12:21pm ET
5:21pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

This another all SEC clash as the South Carolina Gamecocks (5-1) visit the Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-3) hoping to put a really tough week behind them. The Gamecocks lead the SEC East with a 3-1 Conference record, while the Bulldogs have lost all 3 SEC games they have played this season.

The problems for Steve Spurrier began last week when he had finally decided to bench spluttering QB, Stephen Garcia, in favour of Connor Shaw. The latter led the team to the convincing win over Kentucky while throwing 4 TD passes, but that was only the beginning of a strange week.

A few days after this game, Garcia was thrown out of the programme for violating his conditions of staying in South Carolina, while rumours surfaced of Garcia being involved in point shaving activities while the starter. After this, Spurrier decided he would take his frustrations out on sections of the media who were banned from discussing things with him.

Garcia had struggled in the early portion of this season, and the Gamecocks are hoping Shaw can at least give them so semblance of a passing Offense. They may struggle to get things going through the air against a decent Bulldogs Defense, although it is clear that they are going to focus on preventing Marcus Lattimore from dominating on the ground, thus opening up some passing lanes for Shaw.

The Bulldogs have allowed just 3.9 yards per carry so far this season, but this is an altogether different test against a player that has rushed for 26 TDs in the last 2 seasons.

South Carolina are not the only team in this game that have had problems at QB, as Mississippi State had to replace Chris Relf at half time in favour of Tyler Russell last week in their win over UAB. Relf had struggled in that game and Russell came in and threw 3 TD passes, but there is no word how the Bulldogs are going to start this week.

Regardless of the QB controversy, the Bulldogs will rely heavily on Vick Ballard to gain much of the yards on the ground. They have picked up 4.4 yards per carry as a team, and Ballard has scored just 2 fewer TDs on the ground than Lattimore in the last couple of seasons.

South Carolina are certainly capable of taking advantage of the Offensive Line the Bulldogs have as they have struggled to keep their QB upright, so the key will be whether Mississippi State can keep churning out the yards on the ground to keep whoever plays behind Center in short and manageable situations.

South Carolina's Kyle Nunn and Rokevious Watkins, both Offensive Tackles, are listed as questionable and could be missing this game. Marty Markett (CB) suffered a concussion last week against Kentucky and is unlikely to be cleared in time for this game.

Head to Head

South Carolina have won 5 games in a row in the series, although they last met in 2007 when the Gamecocks won by 17 points at home.

The Gamecocks have also won each of those games against the spread.

The favourite is 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games of the series.

Mississippi State are 1-5 against the spread this season, South Carolina are 3-3.

Other Interesting Trends

Mississippi State are 12-5-1 against the spread in their last 18 games as the underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points.

However, they are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog.

They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games in Conference play.

The Bulldogs are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record on the road.

South Carolina have won their last 6 games against the spread as the road favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.

Prediction

This looks like a trap game to me and I am going to back the underdog to come good even though the Bulldogs have had a tough start in the SEC this season. I like them for the following reasons:

First, I think the Gamecocks have had a very emotional week with all the issues surrounding Garcia's dismissal from the team and Steve Spurrier getting chippy with the media.

Second, Mississippi State might not have won a SEC game so far, but the Defense is underrated and can definitely make things tough for the South Carolina Offense.

Third, the Bulldogs' Offense matches up well with the Gamecocks' Defense and they should be able to score their fair share of points.

I went back and forth on this game a bit, but I felt the Gamecocks have a few issues to contend with, while Connor Shaw had a tough time in his first start as the QB at the start of the season.

This will not be easy for him against this Defense and South Carolina will not be able to change things at the position if things start going wrong.