NCAA Football
2011-10-15 - Clemson Tigers at Maryland Terrapins
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 7
Saturday 15 October 2011 - Kick Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Game Preview
This is an important ACC match up as the #8 ranked Clemson Tigers (6-0) look to maintain their unbeaten record and lead in the ACC Atlantic Division as they visit the Maryland Terrapins (2-3). Clemson are 3-0 in Conference play, while Maryland are 1-1.
It is surprising to see Clemson are still unbeaten as we head into Week 7, but they have recorded big wins this season over Auburn, Florida State and at Virginia Tech, all ranked teams when they played the Tigers, and now they are the favourites to play in the ACC Championship game and an outside shot to play in one of the big Bowl games.
The best news the Tigers had this week was when Tajh Boyd was upgraded to probable for this game having come out early in the win over Boston College last weekend. Boyd has been a real revelation for Clemson, hitting 15 TD passes and only 2 Interceptions to open the season and he should be able to get some joy once the running game gets the passing lanes opened up.
That should happen at some point during this game as the Tigers have an impressive rushing game that has provided 176 yards per game on the ground and now face a Maryland Defense that cannot seem to stop teams running all over them. Andre Ellington is in line to have a big game and he is picking up 4.6 yards per carry.
I expect to see a lot of rushing attacks in this game as the Maryland Terrapins will also try to run the ball against a Clemson Defense that is giving up 4.4 yards per carry. Davin Meggett should get the bulk of the carries for the Terrapins, although CJ Brown could be given the start at QB after rushing for 124 yards in a loss to Georgia Tech last week.
Maryland do struggle to get things moving through the air and that could be a problem if they get behind in this game. If they are forced to play catch up, the Clemson Tigers will be able to let loose their Defensive Ends and make life that much more difficult for Maryland.
Spencer Benton (K) is likely to be missing for the Tigers again this week after missing out on the game with Boston College last week.
Andrew Gonnella (LG) could be a big loss for the Terrapins as he has started in that position all season but was injured last week and has been ruled out. Another big loss would be Kenny Tate (LB) who is listed as questionable after missing the game with Georgia Tech last week- Tate already has 2 Interceptions this season and made it to the All-ACC team last year.
Head to Head
Clemson beat Maryland 31-7 at home last season, their first win in 3 games in the series but Clemson are just 3-8 against the spread in the last 11 games in the series.
The last 4 games in Maryland have been split 2-2, both straight up and against the spread. The road team is 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.
Maryland are 2-3 against the spread this season, Clemson are 5-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Maryland are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games in Conference play. They are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record on the road.
Clemson are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as the favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points. They have won their last 5 games against the spread in Conference play.
Prediction
I do like Clemson in this game to win and cover for the following reasons:
First, I have been waiting for confirmation that Tajh Boyd will play as he adds a whole different dimension to the Offense and has been in very good form so far this season.
Second, Maryland have to be hurting after pushing Georgia Tech so close last week and may struggle to find that belief again if they go down early.
Third, if Clemson get up, the Terrapins could find it hard to keep up if they are forced to throw the ball with the problems they have had at QB.
I know the Maryland Terrapins could be fired up by the fact their homecoming celebrations will be taking place this week, but the Tigers look a little too good for them and I'll take the 7.5 point spread.
The Pick :
Maryland Terrapins 24-35 Clemson Tigers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Clemson Tigers -7.5 Points @ 1.95
