NFL Football
2011-10-24 - Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 7
Monday 24 October 2011 - Kick Off 7:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Baltimore Ravens (4-1) will look to pad their lead in the AFC North while also putting in another nail in the coffin of Jack Del Rio's career as Head Coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5). The Jaguars were expecting to be contenders in the AFC South this season, but are not going to be making the Play Offs this season.
I am not sure what ESPN were thinking when they decided they wanted this to be their Monday Night Football game in Week 7, and it does look like a complete mismatch on paper, even if the game is not played on paper but on the field.
The Jaguars will be hoping Blaine Gabbert will have a better read of the blitz this week, something that has really troubled him early in his NFL career, and something you just know the Baltimore Ravens will be very happy to use and take advantage of.
Jacksonville are going to struggle to get a lot done with their Offense against a Ravens Defense that is probably playing the best out of all those units in the NFL. They have the best scoring Defense, allowing just 14 points per game and face an Offense that is averaging just 12 points a game.
The Jaguars should struggle to move the ball both on the ground and through the air in this game, as the Ravens just don't allow teams to move the chains easily. They have faced tougher Offenses than the Jaguars this season so the issue of covering the spread will come down to the Ravens Offense and which Joe Flacco comes out to play this week.
Baltimore should get plenty of success using Ray Rice against this Jacksonville Defense that gives up 4.1 yards per carry, and I expect Rice will also get a number of calls from Flacco receiving passes out of the backfield.
Joe Flacco himself has been a little hit and miss this season, but he should have his chances to make big plays against a Defense that has allowed QBs to complete over 60% of their passing attempts this season. I expect the likes of Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith to be able to stretch the field and open up the game for the Ravens.
Head to Head
This is the first meeting between the teams since 2008, when Baltimore beat Jacksonville 27-7 at home.
The teams last met here in Florida in 2005, with the Jaguars winning 30-3.
Baltimore are 3-1-1 against the spread in the last 5 meetings in the series.
Jacksonville are 2-4 against the spread this season, Baltimore are 4-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Jacksonville are 1-4-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games against a team with a winning record.
They are 11-24 against the spread in games against non-Divisional opponents since 2008.
Baltimore are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road favourite.
However, they are just 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 15-6 against the spread in their last 21 games against a team with a losing record.
Prediction
I really like the Baltimore Ravens to win and cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, Jacksonville are really struggling to move the chains and score points and now face a blitz happy Defense that will cause problems for Blaine Gabbert who has struggled to read the blitz so far this season.
Second, Baltimore's Defense is playing so well that they can force turnovers and will give their Offense short fields if they don't score from the turnovers themselves.
Third, Joe Flacco is capable of leading this team to quickfire points and big plays and it will be really tough for the Jaguars to get back into the game if they fall into a hole.
The biggest concern I have is that Baltimore are perhaps going to be looking ahead to bigger games on their schedule, but I am sure they want to maintain their lead over the Steelers and will not want to let up here. Once they go up in this game, it is going to be tough for the Jaguars to come back.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Jacksonville Jaguars 13-31 Baltimore Ravens
