English Premier
2011-10-29 - Everton vs Manchester United
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Premier League
Saturday 29 October 2011 - Kickoff 12pm
Everton
Everton will look to heap further misery on Manchester United in a notoriously tough place to visit in an early afternoon kickoff. The home team had to play 120 minutes in the Carling Cup against Chelsea on Wednesday night, ultimately in a losing effort, and there has to be a few tired legs for an early morning start.
The Toffees are up to 13th in the table after an impressive 1-3 win at Fulham last week and they now have 10 points from their opening 8 games this season. They have not been as effective at home as they would have liked as they are only 1-1-2 there this season, scoring 5 goals and conceding 6.
The win over Fulham meant Everton snapped a 3 game losing run in the Premier League, although those were against Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea. Everton have lost just 1 of their last 6 home games in all competitions, and even that was a controversial one against Liverpool when Jack Rodwell was wrongly sent off early in the game.
Victor Anichebe is a long term absentee, while Royston Drenthe will serve a suspension after being sent off during the game against Chelsea. Phil Jagielka, Leon Osman and Tim Howard were the only first teamers rested for that game and should return for this one.
Manchester United
It has been a few days since the shocking home defeat last Sunday and I think Manchester United will be glad they have an opportunity to get back on the horse, even if it is at a tough venue like this one. Sir Alex Ferguson was understandably upset at the naive way United kept conceding goals last weekend and I have a feeling he will be concentrating on making sure they don't act so foolish this week.
Even though it was a large scoreline on paper, the Red Devils will be happy to know they are still 2nd in the Premier League and they are only 5 points behind Manchester City with less than a quarter of the season played and having played most of the top teams in the League at least once. They are 2-2-0 away from home this season, scoring 9 goals and conceding 3, giving them the 2nd best attack and defence away from home so far.
A 0-3 win at Aldershot during the week was well received by the United fans and means the team have won their last 2 away games without conceding a goal, although the League Two side and Otelul Galati are not the best opposition in the World. United have actually drawn their last 2 away games in the League, both 1-1, at Stoke City and Liverpool.
Jonny Evans sat out his suspension against Aldershot in the Carling Cup during the week so Sir Alex Ferguson has a full complement of players to choose from. I do expect a few changes from the team that was beaten last Sunday, with the likes of Rio Ferdinand and Patrice Evra in tough positions as they were openly criticised by the manager.
Tom Cleverley played at Aldershot and could return in midfield, while Nemanja Vidic suffered no reaction to his first game for United since the opening day of the season. Phil Jones, Ryan Giggs, Javier Hernandez and Antonio Valencia will also be pushing for starting places.
Head to Head
Everton have won just 1 of their last 12 Premier League games against Manchester United.
Their record at Goodison Park has been better of late, being unbeaten in their last 3 here against United, including a 3-3 draw last season when the home side scored twice in the last 2 minutes of injury time to earn a very unlikely draw.
Everton have scored 3 goals in each of their last 2 home games against United.
Prediction
Straight off the bat I will say I don't want any piece of United at a ridiculously short price, in my opinion, considering they have won just 7 of their last 23 away games in the League and have not posted a victory in this part of Liverpool since 2007.
I can understand the layers wanting to keep the team on their side as everyone is expecting Man United to bounce back and show their character in this game following last weekends debacle.
I can also understand why people are expecting goals in this game as the last couple of seasons here have been high scoring affairs and both sides have looked better going forward than defending in recent games.
However, I will be backing 'Under 2.5 Goals' from this game as I think Sir Alex Ferguson will be concentrating on making sure his side grab a clean sheet after their poor defensive performances of late. With Vidic back offering his experience, I think United will be a little more solid at the back even against a hard working Everton side that can exploit set-pieces.
Manchester United have also not been as effective going forward as they were earlier in the season and I think this could develop into a tight battle where one goal settles the match in someone's favour.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Everton 0-1 Manchester United
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.00
