NFL Football
2011-10-30 - New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 8
Sunday 30 October 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
8:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This pits two of the best AFC teams together and could very much be the future AFC Championship Game as the New England Patriots (5-1) visit Heinze Field to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2). This is a fascinating game that could also provide a big tiebreaker for future seedings in the Play Offs too.
The Patriots come off a bye week and should be well prepared for this game, although I have a strong feeling Rob Gronkowski, who had 3 TDs receiving against the Steelers last season, will be sitting for at least a Quarter of this game. Gronkowski was picture shirtless with a porn star earlier this week, while she wore his Patriots jersey and he had to explain his actions to the owners.
Pittsburgh moved to the top of the AFC North thanks to a win over Arizona last week on the road, while rivals Baltimore then laid an egg on Monday Night Football. However, the Steelers are yet to face a challenge like the Patriots since the opening Week of the season when they were blown out by Baltimore.
Ben Roethlisberger should have plenty of success against this New England Secondary this week. The Patriots have struggled to stop the pass against every team they have played and that has not been helped by their inability to get to the opposition QB and pressure them into bad throws. I expect the Pats will get more out of this week as the Pittsburgh Offensive Line has not protected their QB very well, but the receiving corps is full of speed players like Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown and it will be hard for the Pats to lock them down.
The Steelers should be able to move the ball on the ground too, but Vince Wilfork and Albert Haynesworth will clog up the middle of the line and it will still be mainly up to Roethlisberger to move the chains with his arm and ability to scramble in the pocket.
New England will stick with their tried and tested system and give the ball to Tom Brady and the Offense to move the chains. Brady is on course to break passing records galore this season and should be able to move the chains even if the Steelers are leading the League in pass Defense. James Harrison is out so I think the Steelers will struggle to get to Brady, while there are enough Offensive weapons, particularly the Tight Ends, that match up well with this Defense.
Pittsburgh have really struggled to stop teams moving the ball on the ground, but New England have not had the most effective ground game, although the combination of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Steven Ridley should be able to keep the Steelers honest.
Head to Head
New England came in here as the big underdogs last season and went away with a 13 point win, meaning they have now won 4 of the last 5 meetings against the Steelers, all with Brady at QB. The 1 loss came when Matt Cassel was the QB of the the Patriots.
The Patriots are 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games against the Steelers and New England are 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 games at Heinze Field.
Pittsburgh are 3-4 against the spread this season, New England are 4-2.
Other Interesting Trends
Pittsburgh are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points.
Ben Roethlisberger is 14-9 against the spread as the underdog.
New England are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road favourite.
Road favourites are 29-9 against the spread coming off a bye week.
Prediction
I am going to back the New England Patriots to win and cover for the following reasons:
First, Tom Brady has been incredible against the Steelers in recent games against them, particularly here at Heinze Field.
Second, I feel the New England Offense matches up well with the Pittsburh Defense and can spread them out and score points on them.
Third, this is the biggest test for the Steelers since the opening week loss to Baltimore. They are in a tough spot as the Ravens will be visiting them next week too.
Fourth, New England have had an extra week off for this game and Bill Belichick should have devised a scheme that allows his Defense to slow down the Steelers enough to ensure the Pats win.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Pittsburgh Steelers 27-31 New England Patriot
