UCLA Bruins at USC Trojans Betting pick | 2011-11-26

NCAA Football

2011-11-26 - UCLA Bruins at USC Trojans

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

UCLA Bruins @ USC Trojans
United States: NCAA Football Week 13
Saturday 26 November 2011 - Kick Off 10:15pm ET
3:15am (British Standard Time)

Preview

The USC Trojans (9-2) cannot win the Pac-12 South as they complete their final year if ineligibility from Bowl games, but that has not stopped them pushing the best sides in the Conference and playing the great role of spoiler. They have a chance to ruin the UCLA Bruins (6-5) season here by winning the game and perhaps costing the Bruins the chance to win the South.

USC are 6-2 in the Pacific 12 this season, but they have shown their class by pushing Stanford to triple OT before falling, while they ruined Oregon's chances of making the National Championship game with a win on the road last week. UCLA are 5-3 in the Conference but a defeat will open the door for Utah to take the Division.

All the talk this season has been about Andrew Luck as the QB that every team will want to take in the NFL Draft in April, but Matt Barkley has shown his credentials if he wishes to make himself eligible as highlighted by his 33 TD passes and 7 Interceptions. The Trojans have been able to move the ball successfully through the air and I can't imagine that will change against the Bruins Defense that has found it hard to rush the passer and allowed over 60% of passes to be completed.

It won't be any easier for them to defend the pass if the Bruins cannot stop the run as has been a problem for them this season. Curtis McNeal and Marc Tyler should have plenty of success on the ground as UCLA have given up almost 5 yards per carry so far this year while USC have managed 4.8 yards per carry. With the running game working, it should make it that much easier for Matt Barkley to have his way with this Secondary.

That should mean the pressure will be on UCLA to keep up with the Trojans and that is something they should be able to manage to some extent. However, it has to be said that the Offense does not match up well with the Defense, as the Bruins prefer running the ball while the Trojans Defense has struggled much more with the pass.

Jonathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman have both been very good running the ball for UCLA this season, helping the team gain 5 yards per carry so far, but they face a Trojans Defense that has been fairly stout against the run and are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry. The running game will need to be established if the Bruins want any chance of causing an upset as their QB play has been erratic at best.

Kevin Prince will be sitting under Center, but he has thrown only 8 TD passes this season and 6 Interceptions. He should have a chance to move the ball against the Trojans Secondary that has struggled this year, but the key will be to stay out of 3rd and long situations and obvious passing situations. USC have been able to find an effective pass rush and that could be a problem for the UCLA Offensive Line if they need to give Prince time to find receivers.

Head to Head

USC have a strong record against UCLA, winning 9 of the last 10 games in the series, including a 14 point win on the road last season.

USC are 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series played at Southern California.

USC are 7-4 against the spread this season, UCLA are 4-7.

Other Interesting Trends

USC are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games in Conference play.

They have followed up their last 5 wins by going 4-1 against the spread in their next game.

UCLA are 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games as the road underdog.

They are 5-13 against the spread in their last 18 games in Conference play.

Prediction

I am going to back the USC Trojans to win this game and cover the spread one more time this season. I think they are capable of playing spoiler for the following reasons:

First, USC have followed up their previous big performance against Stanford with an easy home win in their following game so I don't anticipate a let-down after their win over Oregon.

Second, the Bruins have really struggled in their last 3 road games, losing by 25, 26 and 26 points respectively against some of the better teams in the Pac-12.

Third, the Trojans have a really strong record against UCLA in recent games and they should be fully focused on playing against their local rivals and being able to ruin their season.