Euro 2012
2012-06-27 - Spain vs Portugal
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Euro 2012 : Semi Final
Wednesday 27th June - Kickoff 7:45pm
Spain
Del Bosque's quest for a third straight major championship victory is well on course as his Spanish side are a game away from the final. On Wednesday night they face local rivals Portugal and once again go into a game as the odds on favourites.
The Spanish started slowly in these Championship's as they did in the World Cup, dropping points in the first game. After drawing to Italy 1-1, a big 4-0 victory followed over Ireland but then despite winning 1-0 over Croatia. The Spanish were stretched on many occasions as Bilic's side wasted 2 glorious chances to take the lead, but despite not being at their best Spain got the winner and the vital 3 points.
In their Quarter Final encounter with France, many predicted that the French could upset the Spanish. However, 90 minutes and just 1 shot on target later we were left to admire how easily the Spanish coped with the French. 2 Xabi Alonso goals were the difference on this 100th appearance for Spain made the final result 2-0 but the gulf between the sides was much bigger than that scoreline.
With no suspensions going into this semi final game, the Spanish are at full strength and will fancy getting their revenge over Portugal. I say revenge because in November 2011, Portugal beat Spain 4-0 in a friendly and many of this side will remember that. Being a friendly I won't read too much into to but still it sets up this game very nicely.
Portugal
Bento's Portugal have been excellent to earn a place in the last 4. Having been drawn in the "Group of Death" Portugal were outsiders to qualify and a huge 20/1 to win the whole competition. Once again they go into this semi final odds against as they face tournament favourites Spain on Wednesday night.
It seems a long time ago that Portugal lost to Germany back in game 1 to leave them precariously positioned in Group B. Defensively the side looked sound but a late Gomez took the points away from them in a 1-0 defeat. Against Denmark we saw the good (scoring 3 goals), the bad (going 2-2 after being 2-0 up) and the ugly (Ronaldo's 2 missed sitters) in a 3-2 that gave them life once again in this group. Finally against the Dutch they showed some great spirit to come back from a goal down to win 2-1 with some outstanding counter attacking football.
The 2 wins in the last 2 games ensured a second place finish in Group B and then a "kind" Quarter Final encounter with the Czech Republic. Portugal won with ease as the Spanish did in their game, however their goal came much later than the Spanish ones. Portugal had 60% possession and 22 shots to the Czech's 2! This side is going to be a much bigger goal threat than France were with Ronaldo looking great again after a poor showing against Denmark.
Betting Verdict
"Spain are drained" says Del Bosque. Mind games already ahead of this game? Perhaps? But he does have a point, the World Champions have rarely rotated in this tournament and the large Barca presence of players have played a lot of games in the last few years. Spain also played 2 days after Portugal so there's another slight edge to Bento's side.
I know it's a friendly but the 4-0 win in November is a factor and on that night Ronaldo scored a wonder goal only for Nani to head it over the line when in an offside position. Many worry if Ronny can get it done on the big occasion but after scoring against Barca this year and looking great again I think he's a huge factor on Wednesday.
I don't like Spain at just under evens because I think if Portugal score first this won't be an easy game to come back from. We know Bento's side can mix it with the best, just ask Germany and Holland, however, 2 games 2 different results despite equally good performances is a concern.
Picking a winner is tough as I think Portugal will score but I think the Spanish are good for at least 1 goal if not 2. If Spain win this game I expect they will need 2 and I will take a buy of Spanish goals again like in the last round.
Spain to score 2 or more is a big 2.60 and I think we will get a good run for our money here. Portugal conceded in everyone of their group games as well as a lot of goals in qualifying. The Czech's were shut out but lets be honest they are a level or three beneath Spain and I think this game has 2-1 either way really. Therefore, I will stick with the tournament favourites in this one to get it done scoring 2 in the process.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Spain 2-1 Portugal
