NFL Football
2012-09-09 - Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Week 1
Sunday 9 September 2012 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Time)
Preview
All the talk throughout the off-season was surrounding the New Orleans Saints bounty scandal which led to two Coaches, Head Coach Sean Payton and Interim Head Coach Joe Vitt being suspended and a number of the Defense facing the same. However, the player suspensions were overturned this week so the Saints should be fired up in their extremely loud Dome to open the season.
The whole story isn't just about how the Saints do without their inspirational Head Coach, but also how will Robert Griffin III (RGIII) do in his first start as a rookie Quarter Back after being chose number 2 in the NFL Draft last April.
I don't have too many concerns about the New Orleans Offense as they still have Drew Brees and a number of players that can make all the difference when they have the ball. The Offense will be able to pass or run the ball depending on what Defenses show them and I guess passing will be the order of the day on Sunday.
That is because the Washington Secondary is still the weakest part of the Defense and matching up against Jimmy Graham is going to be tough for the Defense as a whole. The Saints only allowed 24 sacks last season so Brees should have enough time to do what he wants in this one and the Saints should get plenty of points at home as they always seem to do.
The question will then shift to RGIII and whether he can make enough plays to keep his Offense going and matching Drew Brees. That's a tough ask of a veteran Quarter Back, let alone one making his first start in the NFL, but RGIII does have some tools that makes me think he will get the chains moving.
The Offensive Line in Washington is not that consistent, but RGII can certainly run with the ball and avoid the rush that may come his way. It has also been possible for teams to pass and run against the Saints in the last year and the defensive suspensions may just make that a little easier for Washington.
Pierre Garcon and Santana Moss are good receivers for Griffin, but he will need help from the running game, although Washington do not have a clear star at that position. If the Saints get into a lead, or if they can shut down the running game, it could be a really tough eye opener for RGIII in his debut.
Head to Head
New Orleans were 3 point winners on the road at Washington when the teams last met in 2009, although it was the Redskins who covered the spread.
Washington have covered the spread 3 times in a row in the series.
The Redskins have also covered the spread 3 times in a row in visits to New Orleans.
Other Interesting Trends
New Orleans are now 12-1 against the spread in their last 13 games at home.
Prediction
I am going to back the New Orleans Saints to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think they will emotionally be ready to make a statement on Sunday after feeling the suspensions of their players and Head Coach were unfair. With that being backed up by the appeal that overturned the suspensions, I expect the Saints come out and make a big statement against one of the NFL's new poster boys in Robert Griffin III.
Second, Drew Brees will be able to guide the Offense, even without Sean Payton, and he has been a covering machine in games at the Louisiana SuperDome (or whatever it is called now).
Third, the expectation on Robert Griffin III may be unreal considering what Cam Newton did last season for the Carolina Panthers. One big difference is Newton had a solid running game to take the pressure off him, while Washington are still inconsistent there and may put more pressure on RGIII to make the plays with his arms and legs.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
New Orleans Saints 38-17 Washington Redskins
