Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans Betting pick | 2012-09-09

NFL Football

2012-09-09 - Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
United States: NFL Week 1
Sunday 9 September 2012 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Time)

Preview

It's a hard time to be a Miami Dolphin fan as the team just plain sucks and are not going anywhere at the moment. They are loading themselves up with Draft Picks to change the fortunes of the franchise, but it does mean this is a transitional year with the team learning new Offensive and Defensive schemes and a rookie Quarter Back leading the team.

Their challenge to open the new season is far from easy as they take on the Houston Texans, a team that looks built to be challenging for the SuperBowl in the coming season. They have lost some big names, but the squad is mainly still together and they have a lot of things going for them.

I am finding it hard to see how Miami will score points in this one as they have no real receivers that will scare this Houston Secondary, nor do they have a veteran Quarter Back running the show. Brandon Marshall is gone so it will be down to Brian Hartline and Davone Bess, two possession receivers, to get the job done for Miami.

The Texans only gave up 4.1 yards per carry last season so I cannot even look to Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas to keep the chains moving as I expect Houston will load the box and dare Ryan Tannehill to beat them with his arm.

Houston will find a way to get pressure on Tannehill too in obvious passing situations and the Dolphins Offensive Line isn't greatly improved from the unit that gave up 52 sacks last season. Basically, if Houston play a clean game on the Defense, the Fins are going to find it really tough to even move the chains with consistency.

On the other side of the ball, Houston have a healthy Matt Schaub back behind Center and Andre Johnson at Wide Receiver. This tandem should have an enjoyable day against a Secondary that traded away Vontae Davis to the Indianapolis Colts. Miami just don't generate enough pass rush pressure to really worry Schaub behind this solid Offensive Line so he will have all day to find his receivers.

Even if Miami do start getting pressure from their Linebackers, Houston have a very strong running tandem in Ben Tate and Arian Foster and they will be able to keep the Offense rolling much more consistently than the Dolphins.

The Defense was the only bright spot for the Dolphins last season, but they have lost their best Corner Back, while Jason Taylor has retired and they could be spending a lot of time on the field on Sunday which will make life that much tougher for them to hang with the Houston Offense.

Head to Head

Houston are 6-0 against the Miami Dolphins since emerging as a franchise and they will look to continue that run on Sunday.

The Texans have covered the spread in 4 of those games, although they are just 1-2 against the spread in their 3 home games against Miami.

Other Interesting Trends

Houston are 8-2-2 against the spread in their last 12 games.

They are 6-2-2 against the spread in their last 10 home games.

Miami are 22-8-1 against the spread in their last 31 road games.

Prediction

A month ago, this would have been the biggest pick of the SEASON as the Texans were favoured by less than a touchdown, but the inept Dolphins have been so obviously bad (appearing on 'Hard Knocks' this Summer) that the layers have adjusted the line. I am still backing the Houston Texans to win and cover the spread, but at much more reasonable stakes and for the following reasons:

First, I am really struggling to see how Miami are going to score enough points in this game to make it competitive as they are playing a Defense that is likely going to be even better than last season now they have had a year in the Wade Phillips system.

Second, I expect Phillips will send his Defense to go after the rookie Quarter Back Ryan Tannehill and that is tough for an inexperienced QB with no one to really throw to with consistency.

Third, there has seemed to be a lot of disharmony in the Miami locker room coming into this season and there is every chance they could fall apart in this game if they go down big early.

The Statistics :

HOUSTON TEXANS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-01-07	W	31-10	H v Cincinnati Bengals
	2012-01-01	L	22-23	H v Tennessee Titans
	2011-12-18	L	13-28	H v Carolina Panthers
	2011-12-04	W	17-10	H v Atlanta Falcons
	2011-11-06	W	30-12	H v Cleveland Browns
	2011-10-30	W	24-14	H v Jacksonville Jaguars

MIAMI DOLPHINS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-12-24	L	27-24	A v New England Patriots
	2011-12-18	W	23-30	A v Buffalo Bills
	2011-11-24	L	20-19	A v Dallas Cowboys
	2011-11-06	W	3-31	A v Kansas City Chiefs
	2011-10-30	L	20-17	A v New York Giants
	2011-10-17	L	24-6	A v New York Jets