NCAA Football
2012-09-15 - Virginia Tech Hokies at Pittsburgh Panthers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Saturday 15 September 2012 - Kick Off 12pm ET
5pm (British Time)
Preview
This might not be a Conference game, but the Pittsburgh Panthers (0-2) and the Virginia Tech Hokies (2-0) are familiar old rivals that were old Big East rivals until the Hokies jumped to the ACC. That means this will be the first meeting between them since 2003, although the rivalry begins again as the Panthers will be an ACC team next season they will meet one another every season again.
The Virginia Tech Offense is still trying to build a chemistry, even though they have won both their games this season. With only three returning starters from last season, that was always going to be the case, but Logan Thomas gives them some real security from the Quarter Back position.
It won't be easy for Thomas against this Pittsburgh Defense that has given up less than 200 yards per game through the air, although much of that could be down to the fact that they have struggled to stop the run while giving up 6 yards per carry.
Can the Hokies take advantage of those issues though? They have been running a committee at Running Back and have moved for less than 4 yards per carry, although you figure an improvement against the Panthers struggling Defensive Line. Virginia Tech will look to get something moving on the ground and then look for Logan Thomas to continue his efficient play from Quarter Back as he has thrown 4 touchdown passes and no interceptions.
Virginia Tech will also face their toughest test defending the run in this game as Ray Graham is one of the best backs in the nation. For the most part, the Hokies have been effective at limiting the run, holding teams to 3.7 yards per carry which is impressive considering they have faced the triple-option run by Georgia Tech.
And they may be helped by the fact that Pittsburgh are not opening up as many holes for Graham as they should be and the team has been restricted to 3.8 yards per carry. The Panthers have had to move away from the running game in both of their opening defeats as they have been down big and looking to make up the deficits through the air.
If Pittsburgh don't make a better effort on the ground, the pressure on Tino Sunseri to make the plays to keep the chains moving will be immense. Sunseri has only thrown 1 interception in his first two games this season, but the Hokies have defended the pass very well so far as they generate pressure at the front.
That should be the case again this week as the Panthers Offensive Line has struggled to protect Sunseri and that is where the difference in this game could be made. If the Panthers are made one-dimensional and forced to throw, this could be a tough week for the team as a whole.
Head to Head
Pittsburgh have won 3 games in a row in the series, although the last of those was back in 2003.
The Panthers have also got a 7-1 record against the spread in the last 8 games in the series.
Pittsburgh have covered the spread in their last 3 home games against Virginia Tech.
Other Interesting Trends
Pittsburgh are just 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games against non-Conference schools.
They are 12-3 against the spread in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.
Virginia Tech are 0-5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against non-Conference schools.
They are 29-14 against the spread in their last 43 road games.
Prediction
I am going to back the Virginia Tech Hokies to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I have a little more faith in the Hokies Offense to score points against this Pittsburgh Defense than I am the other way around and I am expecting Virginia Tech to shut down the Panthers to a large extent.
Second, the Hokies are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as the road favourite.
Third, Virginia Tech are a very well coached team that are usually ready for their first 'true' road games where they are 18-1 and I think Pittsburgh are still getting their new Head Coach's systems sorted in their minds.
The Pick :
Pittsburgh Panthers 10-24 Virginia Tech Hokie
