NFL Football
2012-09-16 - New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Week 2
Sunday 16 September 2012 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Time)
Preview
After all the emotion of the off-season, I guess it wasn't the biggest surprise in the World that the New Orleans Saints (0-1) came out flat in their opener. That means they are already in a tough spot as they cannot really afford to go down 0-2 in this Division game against the Carolina Panthers (0-1) who were beaten by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their opening game.
New Orleans just felt a little bit flat in their opening game, but it is hard to imagine the likes of Drew Brees not bouncing back from that game. They admitted it was a poor effort on their part, but they are using the loss to the Washington Redskins as a 'wake-up call'.
Brees did throw for over 300 yards in the opening game, but it was the 2 interceptions rather than the 3 touchdown passes that would have pre-occupied his thoughts during the week. I expect he will have a lot of joy against the Panthers passing Defense, even though they are coming off a game where they limited the Buccaneers to 128 passing yards.
The Offensive Line will have to do a better job in keeping Brees upright after allowing 2 sacks last week, but the Carolina Panthers may have to have second thoughts when going after the Quarter Back if Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas can get out into the flat and make space for screen passes. Both should also find a little bit of running room against the Panthers as they will be worried about the passing game, so I expect New Orleans to move the chains with some consistency.
Last weekend wasn't a great one for Cam Newton and the Panther Offense as they scored just 10 points against Tampa Bay in a game they were favoured to win, but one they lost by 6 points. Newton had over 300 yards through the air, but 2 interceptions were hard to overcome, and he didn't have the running room he usually creates. However, I expect Newton would have been in the film room looking at what RG3 did last week and I expect he will be able to make a number of plays in this one.
With the way the Saints played last week, and their Defense being a little banged up, that could mean big games for Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell in the game. The Offensive Line of the Panthers is not the best, but the Saints may not be able to take full advantage of the situation, especially if Carolina can run the ball effectively.
The Panthers really struggled to even move the ball on the ground against Tampa Bay, being held to less than 1 yard per carry, but Jonathan Stewart could be back this weekend and that should really help them. New Orleans gave up 3.56 yards per carry last week against Washington and the dual-threat Newton provides from Quarter Back should give him time to pull the trigger downfield too.
Head to Head
New Orleans have won 4 games in a row in the series, although they have split those 2-2 against the spread.
The Saints have won their last 2 trips to Carolina, but they are just 1-3 against the spread in their last 4 here.
Other Interesting Trends
Carolina are 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games against Divisional rivals.
New Orleans have won their last 4 games against the spread against Divisional rivals.
They are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games against Conference rivals.
Prediction
This game could really go either way and that is because I believe both Offenses can score points in this one against banged up Defenses so taking the Over 51.5 Points looks to be the call to me.
I am expecting both Quarter Backs to be able to play some quick strike football in this one and both should be able to hit the deep ball off of play-action or setting up screens for their playmakers to force Defenses into coming closer to the line of scrimmage and then sending their speedy receivers downfield.
I was very close to backing New Orleans in a bounce back spot, as I did with Green Bay on Thursday, but there is enough about Cam Newton to think the surprise can come off in this one.
I hate the fact that 27-24 will not be a winner for this pick, but the last two games between the teams have shown that one of the teams is more than likely going to go over the 30 point total and I will then look for a close game to get the over in the bag.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Carolina Panthers 30-27 New Orleans Saints
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Over 51.5 Points @ 1.95
