Vanderbilt Commodore at Georgia Bulldogs Betting pick | 2012-09-22

NCAA Football

2012-09-22 - Vanderbilt Commodore at Georgia Bulldogs

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Vanderbilt Commodores @ Georgia Bulldogs
United States: NCAA Football Week 4
Saturday 22 September 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
12:45am (British Time)

Preview

This is a big game for the Georgia Bulldogs (3-0) as they put their unbeaten record on the line against a fellow SEC East rival at the start of a run of 3 straight games against Conference schools. The Vanderbilt Commodores (1-2) is the easiest of the those three games, but after a close game last season, don't expect Georgia to take this one lightly.

Georgia are 1-0 in SEC play thanks to a hard fought win over Missouri, while Vanderbilt are 0-1 when coming up short against the South Carolina Gamecocks in their opening game of the season.

Aaron Rodgers' younger brother Jordan was the starting Quarter Back for Vanderbilt, but he was replaced last week as he struggled to get things going in the first two weeks of the season. It looks likely that Austyn Carta-Samuels will get the call for the second week in a row.

Carta-Samuels is not going to have an easy task on his hand as Georgia have played the pass pretty well this season and will have some of their key players on Defense back in the starting line up. Jarvis Jones didn't play last week, but he is back in practice and already has 3.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and a pick to his name, while the Vanderbilt Offensive Line can have issues keeping their Quarter Back upright.

While it hasn't been made clear yet, some of the suspended players may also be able to suit up this week making the Bulldogs Defense that much more effective.

Vanderbilt also use a running back by committee approach and they will need Zac Stacy and Brian Kimbrow to get something going on the ground if they are to help out their Quarter Back who will be making his first start in a Conference game.

It is a contrast in Georgia where they have no issues about who is going to start at Quarter Back- Aaron Murray is one of the better Quarter Backs in College Football and he already has over 800 passing yards with 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions to his name. Vanderbilt have only given up an average of 100 yards per game through the air, but they haven't played a Quarter Back like Murray and this will be a real test for them.

The Commodores best chance may be keeping Murray in obvious passing situations as Georgia have struggled to protect him at times, but that won't be easy if they can't slow down the running game.

Georgia are averaging 5.8 yards per carry so far this season and they should find some success against a Defense that may have allowed 3.5 yards per carry on the season, but one that struggled to contain South Carolina and were giving up 4.4 yards per carry.

Keith Marshall and Todd Gurley should be able to keep Murray in short and manageable situations that should keep Georgia moving the chains.

Head to Head

Georgia beat Vanderbilt 33-28 on the road last season, although they failed to cover as 13.5 point favourites.

The Bulldogs are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in the series between these schools, although they are just 2-4 against the spread in the last 6 games.

Georgia are 4-1 at home in the last 5 games in the series, going 3-2 against the spread in those games.

Other Interesting Trends

Georgia have lost their last 5 games against the spread at home.

Vanderbilt are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against Conference rivals.

However, they are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games on the road.

Prediction

I do like the Georgia Bulldogs to make a statement to the rest of the SEC East with a win in this Conference game and I believe they will cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, this was a really tetchy game last season and that should motivate the Georgia Bulldogs to put on a big show. Even though Vanderbilt will also be motivated, they are just not as talented on either side of the ball as Georgia are.

Second, Georgia were 8-3 against the spread as the home favourite coming into the season, even though they are now 0-2 in that spot so far this season.

Third, the Bulldogs Defense is beginning to return some of their key players that were suspended and I think there is a clear edge for them against a Quarter Back that's playing his first SEC game.