California at USC Trojans Betting pick | 2012-09-22

NCAA Football

2012-09-22 - California at USC Trojans

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

California Golden Bears @ USC Trojans
United States: NCAA Football Week 4
Saturday 22 September 2012 - Kick Off 6pm
11pm (British Time)

Preview

It was a stunning Week 3 for the USC Trojans (2-1) as they lost their first game of the season to the Stanford Cardinal as an 8 point favourite and that leaves their National Championship hopes in tatters, while Matt Barkley's bid to win the Heisman Trophy also took a big hit.

In saying all that, the Trojans can't feel sorry for themselves as they can get revenge on Stanford if they both win their Divisions within the PAC-12 and the National Championship could still be in their future if they run the table from here on out. That will all begin as they host State rivals the California Golden Bears (1-2) who came so close to upsetting Ohio State last week before coming up short in a 7 point loss.

Matt Barkley took a lot of criticism for his performance last week as he failed to throw a touchdown pass and was intercepted twice. Even Head Coach Lane Kiffin was critical of some of the decisions made, although Barkley has accepted the blame and will be looking for a bounce back performance. He should be able to get back on the horse in the best possible way this week as he is facing a California Defense that has been very susceptible to the big play.

The Golden Bears are giving up over 250 yards per game through the air and there is no doubt that Barkley is the best Quarter Back they would have faced so far this season. However, California will be able to get to Barkley with their pass rush against the Offensive Line, although that may also be limited if USC can run the ball.

That is where Silas Redd and Curtis McNeal will be used to ensure they can move the chains on the ground and also open up the California Defense to the play-action and the deep ball.

On the other side of the ball, I am expecting Zach Maynard and the Cal Offense to have some success both on the ground and through the air. USC have been struggling Defensively and are giving up almost 250 yards per game through the air, but they have been ball-hawking with interceptions, while the pass rush should be able to get to Maynard whose own Offensive Line has failed to offer sufficient protection.

California are moving the ball at 5.8 yards per clip early in the season, but the Trojans have been pretty strong for the most part on the ground although Stanford found considerable success running the ball. I expect Lane Kiffin will have been working on that side of the ball and particularly the rush Defense so to take his chances against Maynard passing the ball.

Head to Head

Last season, USC beat California by 21 on the road and they have now won 8 in a row in the series by an average of 19 points per game.

The Trojans are 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 games and did beat Cal by 34 points the last time they met in the Coliseum.

California have lost 5 straight here by 14 points per game.

Other Interesting Trends

USC are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games against Conference schools.

California have covered the spread in their last 4 games against Conference rivals.

However, they are 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 road games.

Prediction

I am going to back the USC Trojans to bounce back from that defeat last week and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, USC have dominated the recent games against California and have won all the ones since Matt Barkley has been Quarter Back by at least 21 points.

Second, the Trojans know it isn't all doom and gloom if they run the table as that will give them a small chance of making it to the National Championship Game, while they have a bye after this one so can focus all their efforts to remove the taste of the defeat last week.

Third, I believe the USC Trojans just match up a lot better with California than they clearly did against Stanford.