New York Jets at Miami Dolphins Betting pick | 2012-09-23

NFL Football

2012-09-23 - New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
United States: NFL Football Week 3
Sunday 23 September 2012 - Kick Off 1pm
6pm (British Time)

Preview

The New York Jets (1-1) and the Miami Dolphins (1-1) both have the same record for the season, but the two AFC East rivals are expected to have contrasting seasons. Anything less than the Play Offs will be considered a big disappointment for the Jets, while Joe Philbin is bringing a new culture, as well as starting a rookie Quarter Back, for Miami.

The biggest Offensive playmaker in the Miami locker room is Reggie Bush who has continued his form from last season and is looking like the top Running Back that many expected when he came out of USC. It was thanks to Bush that the Dolphins sparked last week as he scored 2 touchdowns with 172 yards on the ground against Oakland.

It will be another tough game for Bush as Defensive Co-Ordinators will look to slow him down and see whether Ryan Tannehill can beat them with his arm, and that should be the case with the New York Jets this season. The Jets have Darrelle Revis back in the line up so the passing Defense should be more than capable of looking after Tannehill and that will allow New York to load the box and look to stop Bush.

New York have given up 4.8 yards per carry so far this season and I do expect Bush to have some success, although not enough to consistently move the chains as the Jets should have extra bodies looking after the run Defense. That means Ryan Tannehill will be asked to make some throws and completions are going to be tough to come by against Revis and Antonio Cromartie while the Offensive Line has struggled to keep the rookie upright.

Mark Sanchez had a really bad game against Pittsburgh last week and the pressure is building on his job as Quarter Back for the New York Jets with Tim Tebow waiting in the wings. However, he was much more productive in the opening game against Buffalo and it will be interesting to see which version will turn up on Sunday.

A lot of the pressure will be on Sanchez as the New York Jets are unlikely to get a lot going with their running game with the Dolphins giving up just 2.2 yards per carry so far this season.

However, the Fins are allowing over 300 yards per game through the air and that is where Sanchez has to make things happen with Stephen Hill and Santonio Holmes, although Dustin Keller has been ruled out. If 'good Mark' turns up, I expect the Jets can get something done through the air.

Head to Head

Miami beat the New York Jets in Week 17 here last season, although that game is best remember for Santonio Holmes throwing a sulk.

That win means the Dolphins are 5-2 in the last 7 in the series both straight up and against the spread.

The Dolphins are 2-1 both straight up and against the spread in their last 3 home games against the Jets.

Other Interesting Trends

Miami are 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games.

They have also won their last 4 games against the spread when playing teams from the AFC East.

New York are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 road games.

Prediction

This is a really tough game to predict, but I do like the New York Jets to beat my Miami Dolphins and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, this is going to be a close game with both Defenses the better units, but I just feel Tony Sparano could provide the edge for the Jets as he is the Offensive Co-Ordinator here after being the Dolphins Head Coach up until last season.

Second, the Dolphins did cover as the home underdog last week, but they are just 7-12 against the spread in this spot over the last few seasons.

Third, I just don't feel I can trust a rookie Quarter Back like Ryan Tannehill not to make a mistake or two against one of the best Corner Back tandems in the NFL and those extra possessions may make all the difference for New York.

The Statistics :

MIAMI DOLPHINS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-09-16	W	35-13	H v Oakland Raiders
	2012-01-01	W	19-17	H v New York Jets
	2011-12-11	L	10-26	H v Philadelphia Eagles
	2011-12-04	W	34-14	H v Oakland Raiders
	2011-11-20	W	35-8	H v Buffalo Bills
	2011-11-13	W	20-9	H v Washington Redskins

NEW YORK JETS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-09-16	L	27-10	A v Pittsburgh Steelers
	2012-01-01	L	19-17	A v Miami Dolphins
	2011-12-18	L	45-19	A v Philadelphia Eagles
	2011-12-04	W	19-34	A v Washington Redskins
	2011-11-17	L	17-13	A v Denver Broncos
	2011-11-06	W	11-27	A v Buffalo Bills

HEAD TO HEAD MIAMI DOLPHINS v NEW YORK JETS
DATE	HOME	SCORE	AWAY
2012-01-01	Miami Dolphins	19-17	New York Jets
2010-09-26	Miami Dolphins	23-31	New York Jets
2009-10-12	Miami Dolphins	31-27	New York Jets
2008-09-07	Miami Dolphins	14-20	New York Jets
2007-12-02	Miami Dolphins	13-40	New York Jets
2006-12-25	Miami Dolphins	10-13	New York Jets