NFL Football
2012-09-23 - Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 3
Sunday 23 September 2012 - Kick Off 1pm
6pm (British Time)
Preview
The Buffalo Bills (1-1) recovered from a heavy loss to open the season by handing one out themselves last week and they will be looking to improve their record and remain as the co-leaders of the AFC East with a win over the Cleveland Browns (0-2). After a horrible first week of the season, the Browns at least looked a lot more competitive last week in a loss to Cincinnati on the road.
After being described as one of the top Defenses in the NFL, the Buffalo Bills laid an egg in their opening game at the New York Jets, although they weren't helped by poor Quarter Back play from Ryan Fitzpatrick.
I don't have a great deal of faith that Fitzpatrick is the QB of the future for the Bills, but he does have a good match up here against a Browns Defense that has given up over 300 passing yards per game and are missing their best player on that side of the ball in Joe Haden.
Fitzpatrick should find time to throw the ball if CJ Spiller continues the hot start he has made this season as he is personally averaging over 10 yards per carry. The Running Back has the speed to cause Cleveland a lot of problems in this game and he should take advantage of the fact that the Browns have allowed 4.2 yards per carry early in the season.
The Bills played really well on the Defensive side of the ball last week and may have to just shut down the running game of Cleveland to give themselves a huge chance to move above 0.500 on the season. Trent Richardson was the first pick of the Browns this season in the Draft and he looks every inch the Back they were expecting, but it will be tough for him to run against the Bills who will be concentrating in trying to bottle him up.
That will be down to the fact that Cleveland don't have a lot of playmakers in the receiving corps and Brandon Weeden may still not have the respect of Defenses to move the chains with his arm. Weeden was much improved last week against Cincinnati, but his Offensive Line is struggling to protect him and they will be facing the likes of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson who are looking for their first sacks of the season.
With that in mind, I expect Weeden could find himself under pressure for much of the game and that will make it tough for him to keep the chains moving if Richardson is being shut down by a focused Bills Defense.
Head to Head
Buffalo beat Cleveland when the teams last met in 2010, but they had previously lost 3 in a row before that including in their only visit to the Browns since they have been reformed.
The Bills covered the spread in the last game after failing to do so in 3 straight.
Other Interesting Trends
Cleveland are 3-8-2 against the spread in their last 13 home games. They are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last 6 games.
Buffalo are 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games. They are just 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 road games.
Prediction
I do feel like a bit of a chump taking this, but I am going to have a small interest on the Buffalo Bills to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Buffalo have the much better Defense of the two teams and I think they are going to have a lot more success shutting down this youthful Browns Offense than the Cincinnati Bengals did last week.
Second, both teams have Divisional games on deck that may just take their attention away, but the Cleveland one is on Thursday night with this being the sandwich between two AFC North clashes for them.
Third, Cleveland have been poor home underdogs in recent seasons and they are just 4-6 against the spread in this spot.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Cleveland Browns 16-20 Buffalo Bills
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Buffalo Bills -3 Points @ 2.10
