NFL Football
2012-09-23 - New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 3
Sunday 23 September 2012 - Kick Off 8:20pm
1:20am (British Time)
Preview
The New England Patriots (1-1) were stunned at home last week by the Arizona Cardinals, but they will look to get back on the horse in a repeat of the AFC Championship Game from last season as they visit the Baltimore Ravens (1-1).
Tom Brady really struggled with the pressure in his face last week and he is sure to have the Baltimore Ravens all around in him this one. Brady was also thrown by the injury to Aaron Hernandez which meant the Patriots had to change their plays to suit his absence and I expect better from than with a week to prepare for this game knowing Hernandez is out.
He is going against a Baltimore Defense that is missing Terrell Suggs and one that is giving up 275 yards per game through the air, so I expect Brady to have some success too. He should be able to use Wes Welker more productively, while Deion Branch has been resigned as a safety blanket.
New England also may find a little bit of success on the ground as Stevan Ridley has shown some flashes in the opening couple of games, while the Ravens haven't been as stout against the run as they are normally. With that in mind, I am expecting Brady and the Offense to be able to move the chains.
Joe Flacco was very good in the AFC Championship Game last season against the Patriots, but he remains inconsistent as shown from his two performances so far this season. I expect him to make some big plays in this one, although the Offensive Line has been a problem in protecting him. The New England Defense hasn't been as porous as it was last season, but Flacco will represent the toughest Quarter Back they have faced so far.
A bigger key for the Ravens will be to get Ray Rice more involved in the Offense after surprisingly choosing to ignore him in short yardage situations last week in a loss to Philadelphia. He has helped the team rush the ball at 5.3 yards per carry so far this season, but New England have been tough against the run and are holding teams to under 3 yards per carry.
I would still expect Rice to have some success if he is given the ball and as long as Baltimore are in the game and not having to rely on the pass to get them back into it.
Head to Head
New England have owned Baltimore in recent seasons, going 8-1 in the last 9 games in the series all the way back to 1995.
However, it is Baltimore that are 3-1-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series.
Baltimore have only hosted 1 game in the last 12 years between these teams and that was back in 2007. New England won by 3 points on their way to an unbeaten regular season, but Baltimore covered as 19 point underdogs.
Other Interesting Trends
Baltimore are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games.
New England are 13-6 against the spread in their last 19 games against Conference rivals.
Prediction
I am going to back the New England Patriots to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, by hook or by crook, the Patriots have owned the recent series against Baltimore and just seem to get the rub of the green a little more than the Ravens in their games.
Second, the Patriots seem to have a knack of bouncing back from losses and are 21-7 against the spread in this spot since 2003.
Third, the Patriots are 9-2-1 against the spread as the road underdog over the last few seasons.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Baltimore Ravens 27-28 New England Patriots
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the New England Patriots + 2.5 Points @ 1.95
