NFL Football
2012-09-30 - New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Sunday 30 September 2012 - Kick Off 1pm
6pm (British Time)
Preview
The New England Patriots (1-2) are in disarray in you believe everything that has been written about them in the press as they are sub 0.500 for the first since 2003 (after week 1). However, they can pull themselves back in contention in the AFC East as they face the Buffalo Bills (2-1), a team that has bounced back very well from an opening day shelling at the New York Jets.
I can understand why people are wondering about the Patriots after that loss to Arizona, but they played well for much of the game at Baltimore and perhaps should have won the game if a couple of calls had gone their way and that same level of performance would see them win a fair few games.
On the other hand, Buffalo haven't faced the level of competition that the New England team will give them as wins over Kansas City and Cleveland are good wins, but not special wins.
CJ Spiller has made a big start to the season, but he was injured last week and won't be back for a couple of weeks, while Fred Jackson is also banged up. That means Tashard Choice will be running the ball for the Bills. However, using a third choice back is going to be tough for the Bills against a Patriots team that has given up just 3.3 yards per carry this season having already met the likes of Chris Johnson and Ray Rice. However, Rice was successful on the ground against the Pats, but Choice is no Ray Rice.
That means the pressure is going to be on Ryan Fitzpatrick to make plays with his arm to keep the chains moving. While I expect him to have some success against this Secondary, I don't know how much you can trust Fitzpatrick in 3rd and long situations, something that he may be facing a few times in this game if the running game doesn't establish itself. Fitzpatrick has been well protected by the Offensive Line, but he is passing for under 200 yards per game and is more of a game manager than someone who will tear a Secondary apart and that could mean problems for Buffalo in moving the chains consistently.
On the other side of the ball, New England's Offensive Line has really been struggling early in the season and Tom Brady has been constantly harassed and been taken down 7 times in their opening games. He figures to have the likes of Mario Williams, Mark Anderson and Marcel Dareus getting after him this week which will make it tough for them to get the vertical game going.
Buffalo's Secondary isn't great, but that pressure up front will force Brady to get the ball out of his hands very early.
I expect the Patriots will look to establish their running game to try and slow down any pressure coming on Brady, but that won't be easy as the Bills have been tough against the rush so far. It wouldn't be a huge surprise if Bill Belichick looks for his Offense to use little screen passes to the likes of Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead and use their speed on the outside to move the ball and keep Tom Brady in short and manageable situations where the quick passes will keep the chains moving.
Head to Head
Buffalo Bills snapped a 15 game losing run in the series to the New England Patriots with a huge comeback here last season, coming back from 21-0 down to win as the 7 point underdog.
New England restored their usual dominance with a crushing win at home later in the season.
Before their loss here last year, New England had won, and covered the spread, in 7 straight visits to Buffalo.
Other Interesting Trends
Buffalo are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games against teams from the AFC East.
New England are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games against Divisional rivals.
They are 51-24-3 against the spread in their last 78 road games.
Prediction
I am going to back New England to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I said last week that the Patriots have a very good record against the spread when coming off a loss and they actually improved that even in a losing effort last week. They are now 22-7 against the spread following a straight up loss.
Second, New England did lose here last season, but that was a bit of a freak comeback if you remember the game and they have dominated the Bills, including a huge revenge win at home last season.
Third, I think the Bills losing CJ Spiller and having a banged up Fred Jackson at best weakens them considerably and puts too much pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick to do more than just manage the game.
Fourth, I think the Pats are going to be fired up after all the criticism they have taken in the press with people wondering if they are 'done'. If they perform up to the level of last week at Baltimore, this will be a big ask for Buffalo to keep up with them.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Buffalo Bills 20-27 New England Patriots
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the New England Patriots -3.5 Points @ 1.95
