Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos Betting pick | 2012-09-30

NFL Football

2012-09-30 - Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Sunday 30 September 2012 - Kick Off 4:05pm
9:05pm (British Time)

Preview

The AFC West doesn't have a stand out team in the early going, but Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos (1-2) need to open their Divisional games with a win if the questions and criticisms of their team are to be quietened down this week. They host the Oakland Raiders (1-2) who picked up their first win of the season last week, but are 0-1 in the Division after a loss to San Diego in week 1.

I have been a little surprised with the criticism of Peyton Manning so far, but I don't think they have been miles away from getting things done. Denver almost overcame 4 first quarter turnovers against the Atlanta Falcons before falling short and they have also faced the Houston Texans so a game against Oakland may be welcomed.

Manning should be able to have a good game in this one as he is coming up against an Oakland Defense that has struggled against the pass so far. The Raiders are just not getting the pressure on the Quarter Back since losing Kamerion Wimbley so Manning should have a little more time to get the ball to his receivers.

Peyton will be hoping that his receivers can cut out some of the drops they have made, but he should have a decent time moving the ball through the air. Willis McGahee should also have a little more running room after coming up against the solid Defenses of Houston and Pittsburgh, and Denver should keep the chains moving in this one.

Darren McFadden has struggled in the early going this season, but his performance against Pittsburgh last week may be a turning point. However, the Broncos have been restricting teams to 3.3 yards per carry so far and they may just be able to do enough to force Carson Palmer to beat them with his arm.

Palmer played brilliantly against Pittsburgh last week and it was by far the best performance from the Raiders as a whole when looking at their Offense. However, Darrius Heyward-Bey is missing after taking a vicious hit last week that thankfully isn't going to cause long-term damage.

The Quarter Back will also be under pressure from the Denver pass rush and there is every chance Palmer goes back to the short dink and dive passing that we saw in the first two weeks.

Head to Head

Oakland had won 4 games in a row in the series before losing to Denver last time out. The Raiders had also won 4 in a row against the spread before losing last season at home.

The Raiders have played well here at Mile High, winning their last 4 visits to this stadium and covering the spread each time.

Other Interesting Trends

Denver are 15-35-2 against the spread in their last 52 games at home.

They are 11-23-2 against the spread in their last 36 games against teams from the AFC West.

Oakland are 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games against Divisional rivals.

They are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 road games.

Prediction

I am going to take a small interest on the Denver Broncos winning this game and covering the spread for the following reasons:

First, I don't think Peyton Manning is playing badly at the moment but rather coming up against strong teams that have the match up advantage over Denver. That won't be the case this week and I think Manning has a big game against the Oakland Secondary that has struggled all season.

Second, Oakland did play really well against Pittsburgh last week, but I can't erase the Offensive struggles they had in the first two weeks and they will be facing a tough Denver pass rush that could rattle Carson Palmer.

Third, I think the injuries to the Raiders Offensive receiving corps will mean a lack of chemistry for Palmer and the new guys coming in and that might help Denver turn the screw and win this game by more than a touchdown.

I'm only having a small interest in this game as there are so many trends that are pointing to Oakland being the right team, but I just think Peyton Manning has had a lot of criticism this week and will bounce back in a way to silence those critics. The Broncos need the win desperately too and I think they will get it here.

The Statistics :

DENVER BRONCOS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-09-23	L	25-31	H v Houston Texans
	2012-09-09	W	31-19	H v Pittsburgh Steelers
	2012-01-08	W	29-23	H v Pittsburgh Steelers
	2012-01-01	L	3-7	H v Kansas City Chiefs
	2011-12-18	L	23-41	H v New England Patriots
	2011-12-11	W	13-10	H v Chicago Bears

OAKLAND RAIDERS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-09-16	L	35-13	A v Miami Dolphins
	2011-12-24	W	13-16	A v Kansas City Chiefs
	2011-12-11	L	46-16	A v Green Bay Packers
	2011-12-04	L	34-14	A v Miami Dolphins
	2011-11-20	W	21-27	A v Minnesota Vikings
	2011-11-10	W	17-24	A v San Diego Chargers

HEAD TO HEAD DENVER BRONCOS v OAKLAND RAIDERS
DATE	HOME	SCORE	AWAY
2011-09-12	Denver Broncos	20-23	Oakland Raiders
2010-10-24	Denver Broncos	14-59	Oakland Raiders
2009-12-20	Denver Broncos	19-20	Oakland Raiders
2008-11-23	Denver Broncos	10-31	Oakland Raiders
2007-09-16	Denver Broncos	23-20	Oakland Raiders
2006-10-15	Denver Broncos	13-3	Oakland Raiders

The Pick :

Denver Broncos 31-21 Oakland Raiders

HANDICAP BETTING TIP :

I'll back the Denver Broncos -7 Points @ 2.05

NFL FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - OAKLAND RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos football Betting Pick