Champions League
2012-10-02 - Nordsjaelland vs Chelsea
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Champions League
Tuesday 2 October 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Nordsjaelland
Nordsjaelland had never won the Danish Superliga until last season, but that success means they have a chance to play in the Champions League and couldn't really have scripted it any better than hosting the current European Champions in their first home game. The side were not expected to challenge in this incredibly tough Group, but their lack of experience at this level may also be a benefit as teams just won't know what to expect when coming to Denmark.
The team are still in touch with Kobenhavn at the top of the domestic League table and find themselves just 6 points behind the latter who are the more accomplished name in European football. Nordsjaelland are unbeaten in their last 3 games since losing at Shakhtar Donetsk to open the Group in the Champions League, while they are unbeaten in 12 straight games at home.
The loss in Donetsk was expected for Nordsjaelland, but they made that game closer than a lot of people may have imagined although that was down to defending in large numbers and posing little threat going forward. The home fans are sure to want them to get forward with more numbers in this one, but Nordsjaelland have failed to win any of their last 3 home games in European competitions and also failed to score in those games while losing twice.
There are no new injury worries for the home team following their win here on Friday night and the same XI are expected to start.
Chelsea
It wasn't the start to the defence of their Champions League title that Chelsea would have been expecting as they could only draw 2-2 with Juventus at Stamford Bridge, despite leading 2-0. That has made life a little more awkward for the Blues in a tough Group so anything less than the 3 points here could really become a problem for them.
Chelsea have been in good form in the Premier League as they have picked up 16 points from a possible 18 while really showing off their title credentials with a 1-2 win at Arsenal over the weekend. They are now unbeaten in their last 5 games in all competitions, winning the last 3 in a row, while they have also lost just 1 of their last 11 away from home in all competitions.
One element of their performances that Chelsea will want to change this season is their poor record away from home in the Champions League, especially if they want to become the first side in over 20 years to retain the biggest prize in European football. They have won just 1 of their last 8 away games in the Champions League and they have lost 3 of those games.
It will be interesting to see what kind of starting XI starts for Chelsea. Frank Lampard may be recalled to the starting line up, but David Luiz look set to miss out and will be replaced by Gary Cahill.
Head to Head
This will be the first time Nordsjaelland and Chelsea meet in a competitive game, while it is also the first time this Danish team has met an English team in a competitive game.
Chelsea have visited Denmark twice, winning both games including 0-2 at Kobenvahn in their most recent trip in 2011.
Prediction
You have to think Chelsea are going to win this game, but there is no way I am backing anyone at 1.30 to win an away game when they have as poor a record away from home in the Champions League as Chelsea do.
It isn't just at 'big' venues that Chelsea have failed to win in their recent run as they drew in Genk last season and that kind of result is concerning.
However, I do think Chelsea will be a little more focused on this game than they perhaps were in Genk as the draw virtually assured them a place in the last 16 and they ended up winning the Group anyway. This time, Chelsea have already dropped 2 points at home and know anything less than a win means they will most likely have to get the three points from Shakhtar or Juventus in much tougher settings.
The handicap did appeal to me for a moment, but I again was put off by their recent away record.
Instead, I will back Chelsea to win the game with a clean sheet, that being offered at 2.25 and there are a couple of things pointing to that happening.
Chelsea may not have won many away games in the Champions League, but it says something that 5 of their last 6 away wins in the competition have all come with a clean sheet to boot, including on a trip to Copenhagen to beat Kobenvahn 0-2.
On the other hand, Nordsjaelland have failed to score in their last 3 European home games against the likes of Sporting Lisbon (twice) and Olympiacos and they have lost 2 of those games.
I expect the home side will look to keep things tight and try and hit Chelsea on the counter, but the Blues have been pretty solid in away games this season with only 1 goal conceded and they should have a little too much quality to see them through.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Nordsjaelland 0-1 Chelsea
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.25 (Ladbrokes)
