Aust. A-League
2013-01-27 - Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets
A Sports Betting Pick by DownUnder
Football : Australia : A-League
Venue: Westpac Stadium, Wellington
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Kickoff 4.30pm local (NZ) 2.30pm AEDT, 04:30 GMT
Season Form:
Past five matches:
Wellington Phoenix : LLLLW
Newcastle Jets :::: DWDLL
Wellington Phoenix
Home record - Played 8 3-2-3 (9:9)
Newcastle Jets
Away record - Played 9 2-2-5 (13:18)
Wellington Phoenix (10th )
So you look at the season stats and ask - Why does a team with the worst home record, that has lost its last 4 games, and sitting at the bottom of the table become favourites to win by the Bookies?
The Phoenix at $2.25 to win seems absurd UNLESS you are aware of this statistic: The Jets have lost to Phoenix every game played at Westpac stadium since 2007 !
And the chances of Wellignton continuing that run are improved with the return from suspension of Manny Muscat, and a fit again Paul Ifill (he will be all the better for his much needed run out in last week’s game) after a long absence due to ankle surgery.
Ricki Herbert will slot Muscat straight back into the midfield along side Dani Sachez, and Herbert may also blood latest signing Isaka Cernak to give the team a more attacking feel. Expect that to be at the expense of Alex Smith.
Vince Lia picked up a 5th yellow last week and thus is suspended for this game.
I think the manager will be wanting a positive response from his team after last week’s 7-1 pasting at the hands of Sydney, so expect them to come out firing in front of their home fans.
Newcastle Jets (6th)
Newcastle have stiffened their defence and have kept clean sheets in their last 3 games, something they hadn’t managed in the previous 14 games. But it has come at a cost, the Jets have only scored 1 goal in those 3 matches.
It looks like Jobe Wheelhouse and Taylor Regan will get starts in this match replacing the suspended duo of Zadkovich and Mitchell respectively.
Ryan Griffiths and Emile Heskey will need to get the better of Durante and Sigmund if want to get back on the score sheet.
Newcastle know getting a result against the Phoenix is a big ask.
Jets CEO Robbie Middleby, spent some of his playing days with the Auckland franchise said…. "The stats don't lie - it is always tough for us against them no matter where we play"
Newcastle haven’t beaten the Phoenix for over 2 years.
Head to Head
Played: 17
Wins: Wellington 12, Newcastle 4,
Draws: 1
Previous encounter
Newcastle 0, Wellington 3, 18 November 2012
The Betting Verdict
If Newcastle don’t take the game to the Phoenix then wellington will push forward and I am sure they will score goals.
When playing at home the Phoenix do play better in the first half, and I reckon they will be rewarded with lead at that time.
Its been a long time since the Yellow Fever have had their shirts off (a tradition when the Phoenix are up at the 80th minute) but this Sunday might be that day.
The Pick :
Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Newcastle Jets
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Shrimp on the Barbie (main bet)Take Wellington Phoenix to win @ 2.41 at Pinnacle
and if you want some chilli garlic with that (side bet)
Go for Wellington Phoenix to lead at half time/full time at 3.70 at BetFred
