NFL Football
2014-10-19 - Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football
Sunday 19 October 2014 Kick Off 1pm
6pm (British Time)
Preview
Would you believe there are some people out there that have criticised Aaron Rodgers for the lack of game-winning drives he has engineered? Those people must have been sharpening their pencils to damn Rodgers again last week, but the elite Quarter Back showed why he belongs in such high company by leading the Green Bay Packers (4-2) to a win in Miami with three seconds left on the clock.
Ever since Rodgers went on his radio show to tell the Packers fans to 'R-E-L-A-X', he has been playing at a very high standard and Green Bay have won their last 3 games to move level with the Detroit Lions in the NFC North. They now face the leaders of the NFC South as the Carolina Panthers (3-2-1) come to Lambeau Field fresh off a tie with the Cincinnati Bengals when the players went off as if they had won the game.
You can understand the excitement of the Panthers players considering they came away with the tie thanks to a Mike Nugent 36 yard missed Field Goal, but this is now the beginning of a five game stretch that could decide the Panthers season.
There will be some excitement that Cam Newton looked about as healthy as he has all season in the game at the Bengals as he actually began to run the ball more than he has. That will be important for the Panthers after seeing Miami have so much success with the read-option against Green Bay's Defense in Week 6, while the Packers have allowed 4.6 yards per carry without BJ Raji to clog up the middle of the Defensive Line.
Unlike last week, Carolina don't have the featured Running Back that should intimidate Green Bay to the point that they are crashing down and allowing Cam Newton to pick up large yards on the ground. Newton should have some success though and will need to if Carolina are to keep the high-powered Green Bay Offense off the field.
Keeping the team in third and short spots is the vital piece for Carolina's Offense to have success in this game- the Offensive Line might be under some pressure from Green Bay's pass rush, while the Packers Secondary haven't been great, but have the ability to turn the ball over, especially if they can find a way to take Kelvin Benjamin away from Newton through the air.
Aaron Rodgers shouldn't have too many concerns when he has the ball in his hands this week, especially with his recent performances for Green Bay at Quarter Back. This Carolina team has struggled to get pressure consistently on the opposition Quarter Back without Greg Hardy and that will be good news for the Green Bay Offensive Line which has been a little poor at times.
Rodgers should scramble away from any pressure he does see and he has shown his ability to still make the big throws on the move, while the Carolina Secondary is going to find it tough to cover all of the options Green Bay have to throw to. The lack of pressure has exposed the Carolina Secondary and Aaron Rodgers could have another impressive game to back up the previous three weeks.
There is also the potential for Eddie Lacy to shake off some of the early week issues he has had against a Panthers team that allows a terrible 5.5 yards per carry. That will only make life that much easier for Rodgers to employ the play-action pass downfield, while James Starks is another Running Back that could complement Lacy in punishing the Carolina Defense on the ground.
The last 4 games of the series have been split 2-2, while the last 2 games have both been won by the road team with each of these teams taking one of those victories.
Prediction
The Green Bay Packers have been playing very well in recent weeks and they showed their mettle in coming back to beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 6. The Packers should have a very strong day Offensively behind Aaron Rodgers, especially if Eddie Lacy and James Starks can provide a strong running game for Rodgers.
The Carolina Defense has struggled without Greg Hardy and it does feel they are a touch over-rated despite the fact they have given up at least 37 points in 3 of their last 4 games.
Cam Newton looked good against the Cincinnati Bengals and looks like he has finally shook off the niggles he has been carrying, but he might be asked to do plenty on his own if the Panthers are to cause a surprise. The Packers Defense should be a little more ready for the read-option Offense that Miami employed very effectively against them last week, while Newton doesn't have De'Angelo Williams in the backfield to keep the Packers more honest.
It looks like a game that could develop into something of a shoot-out, but it does look difficult for the Panthers to keep up with Green Bay who have been in a very good place mentally over the last three weeks.
If Newton is throwing the ball around to keep up, this Packers Secondary is one that is capable of making the big turnover and that should help Green Bay pull away.
While the game should be close for a while, eventually I would imagine the Packers are able to prevail by at least a Touchdown as Aaron Rodgers improves his 20-8 record against the spread when set as the home favourite.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Green Bay Packers 34-24 Carolina Panthers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Green Bay Packers -6.5 Points @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
