English FA CUP
2017-04-23 - Arsenal vs Manchester City
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English FA Cup Semi Final
Sunday 23rd April 2017 - Kick Off 3pm
This game is live on TV
Arsenal
In recent years Arsene Wenger has described finishing in the top four of the Premier League as the equivalent of winning a trophy, but it has been successes in the FA Cup in 2014 and 2015 that eased some pressure on the manager. It is unlikely to be good enough for the fans this season, but Arsenal can add the FA Cup to their trophy cabinet for the third time in four years and will believe they can having reaching the Semi Final.
This run doesn't disguise the fact that the fans are fed up of another collapse in the Champions League in the Last 16, while their run of finishes in the top four is very likely going to end at the end of this season. All of this is being played out in the midst of the 'will he or won't he' contract extension situation for Wenger who refuses to clarify his position. The FA Cup has proved to be respite for Arsenal after seeing off Preston North End, Southampton, Sutton United and Lincoln City so far.
Arsenal have won 4 of their last 10 games in all competitions, but half of those wins have come against non-League opposition although they do come in after picking up an important three points from a win at Middlesbrough on Monday night. That was a critical win for Arsenal as they try and chase the top four places, while it also ended a run of 3 consecutive losses away from the Emirates Stadium.
Shkodran Mustafi and Danny Welbeck missed out on Monday and will be hoping to overcome injuries to take part in the Cup Semi Final.
Manchester City
Arsene Wenger may have been criticised by some for his thoughts about the top four in recent seasons compared with winning trophies, but Pep Guardiola may just be from the same school of thought. However Guardiola has also made his intentions clear of winning the FA Cup and making sure his first season as Manchester City manager is looked back on as a success.
The title challenge never really materialised despite a stunning first two months of the season and Manchester City are still in for a big fight to hold off rivals Manchester United and Arsenal for a top four spot. A big Manchester derby looms in the Premier League, but Guardiola has played strong teams in the FA Cup where Manchester City have beaten West Ham United, Crystal Palace, Huddersfield Town and Middlesbrough.
Manchester City have lost 2 of their last 17 games in all competitions and those defeats have come at Monaco and Chelsea, and they have won back to back games against Hull City and Southampton. The win at St Mary's last time out has ended a run of 3 games away from the Etihad Stadium without a win for Manchester City, although those games were at Monaco, Arsenal and Chelsea.
Bacary Sagna and John Stones are hoping to return from injury. Gabriel Jesus keeps edging closer to a return from his broken foot, but Manchester City are keeping their cards close to the chest about how soon he can return.
Head to Head
Manchester City came from behind to beat Arsenal 2-1 at home in the Premier League, but they twice led before settling for a 2-2 draw at the Emirates Stadium earlier this month.
Arsenal do have a decent recent record against Manchester City with just 1 loss from the last 8 in all competitions, although the results this season mean they have now won none of the last 3.
Prediction
Everyone has an opinion on what has gone wrong for Arsenal this season and even the 1-2 win at Middlesbrough on Monday night was far from convincing. That has meant the oddsmakers have seen the price on Manchester City shorten throughout the week and they are now strong odds on favourites to win this FA Cup Semi Final.
In all honesty I had tabbed Manchester City as the more likely winner since the draw was made and also fancied them to beat Arsenal in the League at the Emirates Stadium. Better finishing may have resulted in the three points for Manchester City and they will be confident they can create the chances to win the Cup Semi Final on the wide open Wembley Stadium playing surface.
The problem with Manchester City is that Arsenal are more than capable of exposing their own vulnerabilities and that should mean we get an exciting Semi Final where both teams are better going forward and playing against weak defences. Even the return of Vincent Kompany is not enough to think Arsenal won't create chances, but the question remains as to how much belief these Arsenal players have in themselves and in their manager.
If they do let their heads drop, Manchester City have more than enough about them to not only win this Semi Final, but win with some comfort on the day. The likes of Kevin De Bruyne, David Silva, Raheem Sterling, Leroy Sane and Sergio Aguero are full of goals and this Arsenal team will allow those players to express themselves.
While I expect Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez to spark chances for The Gunners too, I think it will be difficult for them to stay with Manchester City who should really have won at the Emirates Stadium. On that day I backed at least four goals to be shared out and was rewarded, but that price has been shortened by the oddsmakers who recognise how poor both Arsenal and Manchester City can be defensively.
This time I still anticipate goals, but I want to back Manchester City to record the win and make it through to the Semi Final. You can back Manchester City to win a high-scoring Semi Final at a very attractive price and I think that is the best way to back Pep Guardiola's men if you do think they can win this game in normal time.
It is a Cup game so there are always the chance of spaces opening up later in the game and Manchester City have shown they can be ruthless when those spaces open up. I expect just a little more from Manchester City on the day and I will look for them to make sure they are taking part in the FA Cup Final next month.
The Pick :
Arsenal 1-3 Manchester City
