NCAA Football
2017-10-14 - Kansas Jayhawks at Iowa State Cyclones
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAAF Week 7
Saturday 14th October 2017 - Kick Off Midday
British Time: 5pm
Preview
Everything has to be screaming out 'trap game' for the Iowa State Cyclones (3-2) who moved back to 1-1 in Conference play by winning in Norman against the Oklahoma Sooners as a huge underdog. The situation this week sees the Cyclones as a very big home favourite and that change in dynamic has seen many teams fail to lift their play over the history of American Football games.
Coming off an upset win for a team like the Cyclones can also be tough for the players to replicate the effort needed. Like I say, everything points to a trap game.
However I do think the Iowa State Cyclones can cover a big number against the Kansas Jayhawks (1-4) who are simply hoping to improve on their 2-10 record from last season. This may have been one of the games that the Jayhawks would have circled as a possible win, but they have been struggling for the consistency you need and that has seen Kansas lose four games in a row and been beaten by at least 22 points in each of their two Conference games.
The problem I see for the Kansas Jayhawks is I think they may struggle up front when they either have the ball or are playing Defense. Offensively they have been able to run the ball, but the Jayhawks are being faced up by a very good Iowa State Defensive Line which has played well against better teams than the Jayhawks.
Kansas will feel they can throw the ball effectively against the Iowa State Secondary, although that will depend on whether they have found the answer at Quarter Back. Peyton Bender and Carter Stanley both had plenty of time behind Center last week in the loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders, but neither stood out.
While they will have their chances to move the chains whoever gets the start at Quarter Back, it will be tough to keep Iowa State from making a few plays in the backfield. The pressure that the Cyclones have generated has led to Interceptions, and that has to be a problem for either Bender or Stanley considering the picks they have thrown when they have been asked to make plays with their arms.
Moving the chains with consistency should not be a big problem for the Cyclones unless they have been reading their press clippings instead of focusing on the game in Week 7. The Cyclones might not have the best rushing numbers just yet, but that might have something to do with the opponents they have faced and the Kansas Defensive Line has had real problems in stopping the run.
That is partly down to the fact the Secondary have given up big plays all season with over 300 passing yards given up and either Kyle Kempt or Jacob Park could have a big passing day. Park missed out with an injury last week so Iowa State may stay with the hot hand in Kempt who helped earn the upset over the Sooners and he could back up his performance with another big passing day here.
Kansas just haven't been able to generate the same kind of pass rush as Iowa State and I think whoever begins at Quarter Back should be given time to throw the ball. I also expect a stronger running day from the team and I do like the Cyclones to win this one and cover a big number.
The home team is 4-0 against the spread in the last four in this series and the Jayhawks are now 4-8 against the spread as the road underdog with David Beaty as Head Coach. I am a little concerned with how the Cyclones will respond to a huge upset that grabbed the national headlines in Week 6, but I think they are clearly the superior team here and I will look for them to pull away from the Kansas Jayhawks in the second half.
Prediction
It screams trap, but I will back the home favourite to cover.
The Pick :
Iowa State Cyclones 48-20 Kansas Jayhawks
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Iowa State Cyclones - 22.5 Points @ 1.95 PaddyPower
