AFL Aussie Rules
2018-06-28 - Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES : Round 15
Venue : Etihad Stadium
28th June 2018, 7.20PM AEST
Overview :
Both Richmond Tigers and Sydney Swans are coming off a BYE last week and would be well rested heading into round 15 top of the table clash. The winner of the game will sit top of the ladder, possibly even creating a mini gap on the top and a massive boost for the winner to finish top 2 at the end of the season.
Richmond are top on the ladder winning 3 of their last 5 games. The three wins came against St Kilda, Essendon and Geelong while the defeat came outside Victoria against West Coast Eagles and Port Adelaide.
Sydney Swans on the other hand are level on points with Richmond but are sitting 2nd on the ladder due to a lower percentage. Since losing to North Melbourne in round 7, the Swans have won their last 6 games.
The Tigers are in the bottom 5 teams in the league in disposals count as prefer to let their opponents to have the ball and apply pressure forcing them to make mistakes. The Swans on the other hand are in the top 5 in the league in disposal count.
The Swans are also ranked 2nd in the league in rebound inside 50s as the Swans will lock opponents inside forward 50 whenever possible. They may not be as good as Richmond’s small forward but Swans overall structure in my opinion is better than the Tigers’ structure.
Callum Sinclair is having a good season and his battle against ex
Swans player Toby Nankervis will be key in the middle. Both teams will pack the middle and whoever gets first use of the ball will be able to dominate inside 50 entries.
Dustin Martin has had a slight dip of form since his Brownlow winning season last year, but he is still a fantastic player and can easily influence the game. Longmire is likely to send Heeney and one other around the stoppages surrounding Martin to prevent him from bursting off the pack.
I believe Lance Franklin will play a big role in determining the outcome of the game. He is up against Alex Rance who is the only few defenders in the league who can go up one V one against Franklin.
Rance in 2017 manage to shut Franklin down, however, in the season before, Rance was unable to shut Franklin allowing him to score 12 that year in 2 games against them.
Franklin has kick 15 goals in his last 4 games against Richmond, averaging almost 4 a game. If Big Buddy keeps missing goals like in did in recent weeks and kick more behind than goals, then it will be hard for the Swans to seal the win and move top of the ladder as Richmond are likely to make the Swan pay for those misses.
Verdict:
I was uncertain earlier this year on where the goals would come from if the opponents are able to limit Lance Franklin, however as the season has progressed I have absolutely confidence in the other Sydney forwards as have shown us they are reliable and are able to kick huge goals. Rookie sensation Ben Ronke has caught me off guard, stepped up and kicked 7 goals against Hawthorn in only his 3rd game of his career.
The Tigers will apply immense pressure on the ball forcing opponents to turnover the ball but we have seen in the past what the Swans are able to do and rise to the occasion when required. Despite several young addition to John Longmire team, the Swans still have veteran players that knows how to slow the game down when required.
It is a massive Thursday night football game for both clubs. Although Richmond is listed as the home team, the game will be played at Etihad instead of MCG. Richmond have not lost a game at the MCG for over a year now and the last team to beat them at the MCG was Sydney Swans. If the Swans were able to beat them at the MCG, I believe they are more than capable in doing so at the Etihad.
I expect this to be a close game possibly down to the wire and the winner determine by within a kick. This makes the Swans very attractive as the Swans are +10.5 on the handicap. However, I am prepared to go one further by taking the Swans to win here at a good return!
The Pick :
Sydney Swans by 5 points
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
MAIN BET :Take Sydney Swans to win at $2.45 with Bet365
