AFL Aussie Rules
2018-07-21 - Collingwood vs North Melbourne
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES : Round 18
Venue : MCG
21st July 2018, 1.45PM AEST
Overview :
The World Cup is finally over, lets get some focus back onto the footie as we are reaching the business end of the season and the there are slim margins for errors with only 6 rounds remaining, a loss can throw them outside the top 8.
I believe the top 5 teams in Tigers, Eagles, Swans, Port and Swans have almost secured their ticket to the final and that leaves us with 3 remaining spots and Demons, Giants, Cats, Kangaroos, Hawks, Crows and Bombers all competing for it.
Collingwood are 3rd on the ladder, winning 4 of its last 5 games with wins over Melbourne, Carlton, Suns and Essendon. The only loss came last week against Eagles.
North Melbourne on the other hand have fallen outside the top 8, managing only 2 wins from their last 5 games. They are currently 9th on the ladder and could well fall to 10th with Hawks all but certain to win against Carlton and Adelaide and Essendon are just 4 points behind and are favorites to win this weekend.
It is always unlucky to lose by a goal in the manner they lose last week to the Swans but The Kangaroos form seem to have dipped in the past few weeks after a relatively good start. In the past 5 games, North have only managed to win against the Suns and Bulldogs. The wins against the Bulldogs in my opinion was also a lucky win.
Both Collingwood and Kangaroos are a high scoring team, and both are inside the top 6 teams in goal kicking accuracy. Collingwood despite missing so many kicks last week, have proved their ability to bounce back and score freely throughout the season.
Collingwood was extremely wasteful last week against the Eagles. Nathan Buckley will be quite relieve to have Cox back into his team. Maxon Cox absences had probably a big role to play in the loss as Collingwood normally surround the big American with a bunch of small fast forwards to give their midfields option to go deep or by hand. Without Cox, they just lost their shape up front.
Steele Sidebottom had a terrible game last week against the Eagles. Sidebottom have average almost 30 disposals a game this year but only picked up 18 last week with ZERO marks, the first time this year he had ZERO marks in a game. With Treloar still out, Sidebottom must step up and I believe as one of the leaders at the club, he would do so and his ball movement in the middle will open up a shaky North Melbourne defense of late.
The Betting Verdict
The game in my opinion will be won and loss in the middle and ball movement. North Melbourne are ranked 15th in number of disposals and 17th in effective disposal. In contrast, Collingwood are 1st in number of disposals and effective disposal. North Melbourne do not move the ball effectively while Collingwood are the exact opposite.
I believe Collingwood will bounce back from last week lackluster performance and score heavily. With North Melbourne not able to cover the spread for the past 5 games, I find it hard for them to score enough to stage an upset against Collingwood.
Collingwood has had the upper hand against North in recent season, winning 6 of their last 9 meetings and 3 by over 50++ points. With this game played at the MCG, its hard to see Collingwood losing 2 in a row at the MCG.
I touched on last week how strong Collingwood is at the MCG and I am not backing away from that. The Pies have too much scoring power and ball movement in the middle for the Roos and with Ben Jacobs out, I cannot see the Roos inflicting a back to back defeat to the Pies at the MCG.
While Collingwood might potentially win by a huge margin including a 40++ win, the Roos have had some close games in the last 2 seasons. If the Pies pick up from the lackluster performance, I'd expect the Buckley's side to win comfortably. If the do not it will be a close game with the Pies just edging it I feel. I'd back the Pies to win in a safer option.
The Pick :
Collingwood by 18 points
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Collingwood to win at $1.58 with Ladbrokes
