Champions League
2018-08-14 - Ajax vs Standard Liege
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: Champions League Third Qualifying Round Second Leg
Tuesday 14th August 2018 - Kick Off British Time 7:30pm
Ajax
It will feel like a long time ago now for the fans, but once upon a time Ajax were one of the premier teams in European Football and won the European Cup four times. Things have changed for the club in recent years where they can't even be considered the best team in the Netherlands and that means they have to work their way through the very difficult League Route to reach the Champions League Group Stage.
The last time Ajax played in the Champions League Group Stage was the 2014/15 season and they have been beaten in the Qualifiers a number of times since then. That means there is some intense pressure on the players to make sure they reach the Champions League Play Off Round especially after blowing a 0-2 lead in the First Leg of this Third Qualifying Round in Belgium last week and having to settle for a 2-2 draw. The side have won 8 of their last 10 home European ties including a 2-0 win over Sturm Graz in the Second Qualifying Round.
Ajax won both games against Sturm Graz, but they have followed that up with the 2-2 draw in Standard Liege before a very disappointing 1-1 home draw with Heracles. The draw means Ajax are unbeaten in 14 in all competitions at the Amsterdam Arena and they have won 12 of those games which will give them some belief they can make it through this tie.
Standard Liege
It may have been easy for Standard Liege to drop their heads after falling 0-2 down to Ajax in the First Leg of this Champions League Third Qualifying Round tie, but they won the shot count on the night and deserved to get back to 2-2. While that was encouraging, Standard Liege won't underestimate how tough it will be to get the better of their opponents in this one and move through to the Champions League Play Off Round.
There was no European Football for Standard Liege last season but they did play in the Europa League Group Stage in the 2016/17 season so they won't be overawed by the occasion on Tuesday. The side have won 2 of their last 5 away games in European Football which will add belief to the momentum Standard Liege will have picked up from fighting back from 0-2 down to earn the draw in the First Leg last week.
Standard Liege have only lost 1 of their last 13 games in all competitions going back to last season, but they have had to settle for draws in their last 3 games which have all been played over the last couple of weeks. They are unbeaten in their last 5 away games in all competitions, but Standard Liege have only won 2 of those.
Head to Head
Ajax and Standard Liege played here in the 2016/17 Europa League Group Stage and it ended with a 1-0 win for the Dutch side.
Prediction
At one point it looked like Ajax were going to have a very big lead to take into the Second Leg of this Champions League Third Qualifying Round tie, but the Standard Liege fightback has kept both teams alive in the tie.
It is still a big ask for Standard Liege to win in Ajax or earn a high-scoring draw to make it through to the Play Off Round of the competition. They have not been an easy out for teams away from home either domestically or in recent European seasons, but Standard Liege aren't in a Group situation and have to take a few more risks in this one having conceded twice at home in the First Leg.
However there is some real pressure on Ajax who have fallen back in their domestic League and who have been desperate to return to the Champions League Group Stage for the first time since the 2014/15 season. High turnover of players isn't a surprise for Ajax these days, but it also means it can be tough to gel together early in the season and blowing the 0-2 lead in Belgium is a huge mental blow.
They are at home in the Second Leg though and Ajax have a strong record here in European competition since the beginning of the 2016/17 season. That includes beating Standard Liege 1-0 in the Europa League Group Stage and I think Ajax will be able to counter their visitors to a victory in this one.
I don't think it will be straight forward for Ajax who are under intense pressure to progress, but I can see them taking the lead again in the Second Leg as they did in the First Leg. It will be much more difficult for Standard Liege to recover without the support of the home fans this time around and I can see Ajax having chances to finish off the tie late into the second half as their visitors take risks to get back into the tie.
Backing Ajax on the Asian Handicap looks the way to go as I will look for them to be more concentrated and win yet another home European game.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Ajax 3-1 Standard Liege
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Ajax - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 with BetFred
