AFL Aussie Rules
2018-08-25 - Fremantle Dockers vs Collingwood
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES : Round 23
Venue : Optus Stadium
25th August 2018, 2:35PM AWST
Overview :
Fremantle are 14th on the ladder, winning only once in their last 5 games. The only win came against Carlton, while the losses were against Geelong, Eagles, Hawthorn and Essendon.
In last week hammering against Geelong, Fremantle Dockers were shocking, and they did not kick a single goal in over 90 minutes of play. Their last goal came in the first quarter and al I saw them doing since quarter time was to “hang on” to whatever they could and lose by a respectable margin which turned out very ugly.
Collingwood on the other hand are currently 3rd on the ladder, potentially securing a double chance in the finals with a win today. The Pies have winning 3 of their last 5 games. The wins came against Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions and North Melbourne while the loss came against Richmond and Sydney.
A big win here will all but guarantee Collingwood 3rd spot and a visit back to Optus Stadium in a fortnight against West Coast. If the Eagles slips, they will then finish 2nd and have home advantage. However an upset could see Collingwood fall outside the top 4 and more importantly a double chance.
Nathan Buckley’s side as we all know are one of the top teams in efficiency disposals and the number 1 team in disposals this season, averaging almost 30 more than the league average. Fremantle on the other hand don’t get the ball often and averages almost 50 disposals less than Collingwood.
Fremantle last week had almost 100 less disposals than Geelong and all we saw was Geelong getting repeated entry and shot towards goal. Given this large average disparity in disposals, I believe Collingwood would again have similar dominance on repeated entry and shot on goal. Collingwood are one of the highest scoring teams in the competition and Fremantle are not a high scoring team.
Nat Fyfe did well in his first game back raking up 37 disposals last week, however the stat the concern me most was the captain only had 2 tackles the entire game. Surely, he could have done more than 2 tackles? Despite Geelong have so much of the ball and complete control after the first quarter, Dangerfield had 8 tackles alone. That to me is the big difference between both ex Brownlow medallist.
Brodie Grundy will most likely give Sean Darcy a “lesson” in school and dominate the ruck and the hard running and work by Tom Phillips, Pendlebury, Taylor Adams and Sidebottom will just be too much for Fyfe and co to handle.
This would be Michael Johnson’s last game and unfortunately for Johnson he will be up against Mason Cox. Cox In my opinion should have the better of Johnson and I can see Johnson giving adequate support for Darcy against Grundy and Cox.
Shady's Verdict:
The game in my view is all about which Fremantle side that turns up. Is it the Fremantle that stole a win against Adelaide Crows and Port Adelaide or is the Fremantle that got smacked by Geelong last week?
The manner Nat Fyfe spoke in front of the media earlier this week was not a good sign in my opinion. He was trying to tell the media that the team have faith in Ross Lyon but let’s be honest, it has been 3 full season, and the Dockers are nowhere near in making finals football again. How can the team be confident? At the current rate the Dockers will not play finals next year or the year after unless they can grab several A grad players to join them but I cannot see any A grad players wanting to move to Fremantle at this present moment.
Collingwood will want to win the game regardless and I believe they will win the game but the margin in my opinion is key here. The Hawks will on Swans later that day and the Hawks are only 0.2% behind them. While I think Sydney Swans will take care of business at home, there is still a chance for Hawks to overtake the Pies and all the Hawks need to do is to win by a bigger margin than Collingwood’s win of 6 points or more and the Hawks will finish above them.
I am pretty confident Nathan Buckley is well aware of that hence, I am expecting the Pies to take care of business against a much weaker team in Fremantle. If the Pies play towards their full potential, I expect them to win by 40++ and I do not think the Hawks will win let alone match that margin.
As the Fremantle Collingwood game kicks off before the Swans Hawks game, I doubt the Pies will take any chances and go full throttle to win as big as they could. Fremantle will struggle to keep up with Collingwood efficiency and scoring .
Collingwood to win by 40++
The Pick :
Collingwood by 40+ Points
