NCAA Football
2019-09-14 - Stanford Cardinal at UCF Knights
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football Week 3 2019
Saturday 14th September 2019 - Scheduled 3:30pm
8:30pm (British Time)
Preview
Not many teams in College Football can say they have a 25-1 record in the last two seasons, but the UCF Knights also recognise they are very unlikely to be given a chance to play in the College Football PlayOffs. After going unbeaten in 2017, UCF finished last season with a 12-1 record having lost the Bowl Game, but they will be looking to maintain their regular season run.
Josh Heupel is the Head Coach in his second year with the Knights and he has to believe they can get very close to matching their number of wins from last season. 8 Offensive starters and 5 Defensive starters have returned from 2018 and the Knights have won both games played in 2019 in dominant fashion.
There is a difficult schedule in place for UCF who have to visit both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and also host Stanford, but the Knights are feeling bullish about their chances to push for a big Bowl Game. If they can knock off Stanford it will be a big win despite the Cardinal coming into Week 3 with a 1-1 record after being blown out by the USC Trojans in Week 2.
Stanford lost a number of starters at the end of the 2018 season and have a very difficult schedule of their own which suggests this could be only the second season under David Shaw that the team does not reach at least nine wins. The defeat to the Trojans would have knocked some confidence, but at least Stanford could have KJ Costello back at Quarter Back this week after he was knocked out of the Week 1 win over Northwestern.
The Cardinal are going to need Costello to be back at full health if they are going to upset the odds on Saturday. They have struggled to run the ball so far this season with 3.3 yards per carry produced so far and they don't figure to get much joy from the UCF Defensive Line which has restricted teams to 2 yards per carry.
The problems on the Stanford Offensive Line has not only been restricted to rushing the ball, but they have also had troubles in protecting the Quarter Back. With Costello only just back from a concussion, Stanford have to make sure they can try and keep him upright in this one, although it won't be easy against the UCF pass rush which has given the Secondary the platform for success.
It is important for the Knights to play well Defensively because Stanford have regularly been a strong Defensive outfit of their own under David Shaw. The last couple of years have not really been up to the standard you might expect, but UCF are still uncertain about who they want to start at Quarter Back and it might be up to whoever gets the call to make the plays to move the chains.
A strong Running Back committee have put UCF in a position to move the chains on the ground which has eased the pressure on their starting Quarter Back, but the Stanford Defensive Line has been tough to run on so far in 2019. They have held teams to 3.4 yards per carry this season and even last week Stanford restricted USC to 4.1 yards per carry so they will feel they can at least restrict the Knights in this one.
It might put some pressure on the starting Quarter Back to make some plays, but the Stanford Secondary have not been playing to the level expected and that is where UCF can potentially move clear. It is a big statement game for UCF who want to show the Power 5 Conferences that they deserve more respect for their record and I do think they can win this game.
Stanford have to be respected as a team who can surprise when people expect them to be beaten easily. The Cardinal have not been as strong as a road underdog and UCF have been very good in the spot of the home favourite, but Stanford being 14-4 against the spread as an underdog under David Shaw can only be restricted.
They have also bounced back from straight up losses, but there are some very strong trends in favour of the UCF Knights and I do like the home team here. I expect them to have the stronger Defense on the day and that could make the difference with some big plays on that side of the ball producing short fields and I will look for the home team to cover the spread in this one.
Prediction
Lay the points with the favourite.
The Pick :
UCF Knights 27-17 Stanford Cardinal
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back UCF Knights - 8.5 Points at -110 with Bookmaker.EU
