NCAA Football
2019-09-21 - Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football Week 4 2019
Saturday 21st September 2019 - Scheduled 7pm
12am (British Time)
Preview
It is not very often you will see the Stanford Cardinal down as a home underdog and this is a team that usually has thrived in the spot by going 5-0 against the spread on the last five occasions it has happened. However I am going to look for that streak to end when they face Pac-12 North rivals Oregon Ducks on Saturday in Week 4 of the 2019 season.
Injuries have crippled the Stanford Cardinal who have opened up with a 1-2 record having suffered blow out defeats to USC and UCF in back to back weeks. They have never won fewer than eight games under David Shaw, but even that mark looks like one that may be beyond Stanford with one of the more difficult schedules on paper.
KJ Costello was back at Quarter Back last week, but the Offensive Line is down a couple of starters and all of the pressure is on Costello to make the plays needed to move the chains. Bryce Love has moved on to the NFL and it was always going to be difficult to replace his production at Running Back, but the injuries on the Offensive Line are also contributing to Stanford's struggles to establish the run.
They are not expected to have a lot of joy in this one as they try and move the ball against an Oregon Defensive Line holding teams to under 3 yards per carry. That adds to the pressure on Costello at Quarter Back who is trying to build some chemistry with young Wide Receivers on an Offense that returned just 4 starters from 2018.
Costello is not expected to have a lot of success throwing into this Secondary from third and long spots and he will also be under pressure by the Oregon pass rush. With the Ducks slowing down the Stanford Offense, Justin Herbert and the Oregon Offensive unit could have a very good day putting up strong numbers with field advantage likely going to be won by them for much of the day.
Justin Herbert surprisingly turned down the chance to enter the NFL Draft to stay in school with Oregon for one more year and it will be a good decision if he can take the Ducks to the Pac-12 Championship. The defeat to the Auburn Tigers will likely prevent Oregon from making the College Football PlayOff, but they should have won that game and bounced back to move to 2-1 heading into Week 4.
He will be hoping that there is some consistent support from the running game to help keep the Offensive unit in third and manageable spots, That has been the biggest problem for the Oregon Offense so far, but Herbert has been lighting up the scoreboard and looks to be facing a Secondary that can't help but give up some big plays.
The Stanford pass rush has not been as effective as they would like and the Secondary have allowed almost 300 passing yards per game. It should be a good chance for Herbert to show what he is capable of at a reasonable kick off as far as Eastern Time viewers are concerned and I think the Ducks can snap their run of losses to the Cardinal.
Stanford did have a strong trend as a big underdog, but that was snapped last week and the favourite is 4-1 against the spread in the last five in this series. This feels like a game in which Stanford have too many injuries on the Offensive Line to beat an Oregon team playing with triple revenge and I will look for the Ducks to produce a statement win with a cover of a very big number.
Prediction
Lay the points with the favourite.
The Pick :
Stanford Cardinal 24-38 Oregon Ducks
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Oregon Ducks - 10.5 Points at -108 with BetOnline
