NCAA Football
2019-10-19 - Tennessee Volunteers at Alabama Crimson Tide
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football Week 8 2019
Saturday 19th October 2019 - Scheduled 9pm
2am (British Time)
Preview
Without being disrespectful to opponents to come in October, the Alabama Crimson Tide will be well aware that November will determine whether they make it back to the SEC Championship Game and then the College Football PlayOffs. Once again the Crimson Tide have been dominating opponents, but a home game against the LSU Tigers and a road game at the Auburn Tigers in November will be key to whether they can win their Division.
In Week 8 the Tennessee Volunteers head to Tuscaloosa, but this has been a difficult season for them. It was expected to be another difficult year for a school that finished with a 5-7 record in 2018 and in only the second year under Jeremy Pruitt, but the Volunteers did win their first Conference game in 2019 in Week 7 to move back to 2-4 for the season.
I do struggle to see the Volunteers earning the wins they need to become Bowl eligible having lost home games to Georgia State and BYU earlier in the season. Uncompetitive losses to the Florida Gators and Georgia Bulldogs does not bode well for the Volunteers who have lost twelve games in a row against the Alabama Crimson Tide with each of the last three losses coming by at least 37 point margins.
Scoring enough points to stay within the current spread for this game looks a long shot for the Volunteers who have struggled to run the ball all season. We have yet to see the Crimson Tide Defensive Line at their very best, but it has always been difficult to establish the run against Alabama and I think it will be more of the same on Saturday.
Brian Maurer suffered an injury last week, but the Quarter Back is expected to be available in Week 8 having started back to back games. He might be a Freshman, but Maurer has impressed since being given the chance to take over as the Quarter Back, although facing the Alabama Defensive unit for the first time can be an eye-opening experience for most.
I would expect the Crimson Tide to put a decent enough pass rush together to trouble Maurer and Alabama can shut them down for the majority of the game.
The weather might be key for Tennessee with scattered showers suggesting the best way of slowing down the Alabama Crimson Tide on the other side of the ball is if the Offense has to be a little one-dimensional. I am clutching at straws to be honest with the Crimson Tide looking like they will have the Offensive balance to do whatever they like in Week 8.
Alabama should be able to run the ball with some big gains expected on the ground, especially as Tua Tagovailoa continues to light up the scoreboard with his arm. Tagovailoa is considered the most likely Quarter Back to go Number 1 in the next NFL Draft, and he has considered to plunder Defenses throughout 2019 as he looks to make up for the National Championship embarrassment suffered at the hands of the Clemson Tigers last year.
Tua Tagovailoa has been well protected behind his Offensive Line and the Volunteers pass rush should be slowed down by the effective establishment of the run. The Tennessee Secondary has struggled all season and Alabama should be able to do whatever they like when they have the ball in their hands.
This is a big spread even with that in mind and especially when you think of how quickly Alabama have pulled Tagovailoa when they have games in hand in 2019. However this is a game that Alabama have dominated in recent years and they have covered some big spreads against the Volunteers with the last three margins enough to cover the line as it is now.
Prediction
Lay the points with the home favourite.
The Pick :
Alabama Crimson Tide 49-10 Tennessee Volunteers
