NCAA Football
2020-11-21 - Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
American Football : NCAA Week 12
Saturday 21st November 2020 - Scheduled 3:30pm
8:30pm (British Time)
Preview
Covid-19 postponements in College Football have had a real effect on how the season is going to end and the Big Ten have been dealing with plenty of those. It did mean the Wisconsin Badgers have only played twice this season and have had a considerable gap between games, but it did not prevent them from crushing the Michigan Wolverines and moving to 2-0.
They are up against the Northwestern Wildcats who have a 4-0 record and who are leading the Big Ten West and this game could be a real difference between the teams when it comes to the representative in the Championship Game.
The Wildcats have had a decent schedule to negotiate, although they have perhaps played games closer than they would have hoped. However the credit has to be given to a team who have won four games already this season to match the win record from 2019, although it will be interesting to see how Northwestern cope with the standards that the Wisconsin Badgers have shown in their two wins.
It would be fair to say that Wisconsin have not exactly beaten two powerhouses with their wins coming against teams who have a combined 2-6 record in 2020. However the Badgers have been dominant in those wins and they do look to have the balance on the Offensive side of the ball which will give Wisconsin a chance to have another strong showing.
The team have dominated Illinois and Michigan and won by margins of at least 38 points in back to back Conference games for the first time in over a hundred years. The Offensive Line has once again shown they can dominate the line of scrimmage and young Quarter Back Graham Mertz is capable of making plays through the air.
He wasn't needed much last week and the Badgers will be looking to grind down the Northwestern Defensive Line with their ground game to make things easier for the Quarter Back. It won't be easy but the rhythm Wisconsin had last week suggests they can rip off some big gains on the ground which should mean Mertz has the time to attack this Secondary which has also been playing well.
There are still one or two areas that can be exploited though and Graham Mertz has to make sure he is looking after the ball to avoid allowing the Wildcats to get a feel of this game.
Wisconsin will also feel very confident in the way their own Defensive unit have been playing and they are facing a Northwestern Offense which has not really been very consistent even if the team are winning games. Peyton Ramsey has been playing well at Quarter Back for the Wildcats, but turnovers have been an issue for him and this Badgers team have made some big plays when it comes to protecting the pass.
It is unlikely that Ramsey is going to have a really strong outing and the key is making sure he protects the ball as much as possible. Turnovers could be a difference maker in this game and those could certainly be the reason one of these teams are able to get away from the other and pull clear for the win.
The Badgers look more likely to create those as they are capable of putting Peyton Ramsey in third and long spots and forcing the Quarter Back to take risks. It feels like they have a similar approach to the way they want to play Football, but the talent looks to be with Wisconsin and I think they can win and win well.
Northwestern do have a strong home record against Wisconsin and beat them when last hosting them in 2018, while the Wildcats are 5-1 against the spread in the last six at home against Wisconsin too. That has to be respected, but this Wisconsin team may be one of the stronger ones they have faced in recent seasons and I do think Northwestern are not as good as their record may indicate.
The Wildcats are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the underdog and they are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last five as the home underdog. Add in the fact that Wisconsin are 14-4 against the spread in their last eighteen as the road favourite and I will look for the fresher Badgers to pick up from where they left off in their demolition of Michigan in the Big House and I will look for the visitors to cover here and take control of this Division.
Prediction
Lay the points with the road favourite.
The Pick :
Northwestern Wildcats 13-24 Wisconsin Badgers
