English Premier
2021-08-13 - Brentford vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Friday 13th August 2021 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV
Brentford
The 50th team to take part in the English Premier League since the formation of the breakaway Division in 1992 will kick off the 2021/22 season at their new home. After a year of playing behind closed doors, Brentford will be welcoming the fans into their Stadium in full capacity for the first time and those fans have been rewarded with Premier League Football after The Bees worked their way through the Play Offs a season after losing in the post-season.
There is so much to like about Brentford and the operating model which has seen the club rise through the Divisions. The Brentford Community Stadium was built with Premier League Football in mind and some near misses on promotion have not prevented the club from continuing to develop and look upwards. The underlying numbers suggested they were the best team in the Championship last season and Brentford will know the home form is going to be key in helping them avoid an immediate return to the second tier of English Football.
Brentford finished up with a 12-9-2 record here in the regular season last season and added to that by beating Bournemouth in the Play Off Semi Final. The Bees have won 6 of their last 7 games in all competitions and have enjoyed a decent pre-season as they build towards the new campaign. Brentford are unbeaten in 9 at home and they have won 5 of those fixtures including the last 3 in a row.
Thomas Franks will be leading a squad that is largely reliant on the players that helped take Brentford up into the Premier League, although the additions of Kristoffer Ajer and Frank Onyeka strengthens the starting eleven. Much of the focus will be on Ivan Toney who scored 33 goals last season and should be passed fit for selection on Friday.
Arsenal
A strong end to the Premier League season was not enough to take Arsenal into the top seven of the table and thus they will be missing European Football for the first time in 25 years. They finished 8th and a point behind rivals Tottenham Hotspur last season, but Mikel Arteta will have much more time to work with his players without the distraction of Europe and the expectation is that the club will be operating much higher up the table this time around.
The home form really let Arsenal down last season and the return of fans should give them a chance to boost that. The Gunners earned a 10-3-6 record away from home in the Premier League, and a young squad should have scope for improvement with the focus being on the domestic form.
Arsenal have not had the best of pre-season results, while they were beaten in the Europa League Semi Final at the end of last season. However, Mikel Arteta and the supporters will point out the fact that Arsenal won their last 5 Premier League games as they fell just short of the top seven spots. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 7 away League games and they have won the last 4 in succession.
Thomas Partey has been ruled out until after the first international break of the season, while Rob Holding and Gabriel are both doubts for Friday night. Ben White has been signed from Brighton and should go straight into the starting line up, while further business may yet be arranged before the end of the month.
Head to Head
Arsenal beat Brentford 3-1 at the Emirates Stadium in the League Cup in September 2018.
This will be the first time these clubs are meeting in West London since May 1947.
Prediction
The Premier League returns on Friday night as Brentford become the 50th club to play at this level since the start of the 1992/93 season.
In recent years Brentford have proved to be one of the best run clubs in England with a business model that has forced outsiders to respect the methods being used. This is a data driven club, but it has proved to be very effective as Brentford have overcome losing some big name players and found the right replacements to keep the club developing in a positive manner.
It has also led to Brentford moving to a new home and the idea was that the Brentford Community Stadium would be ready for Premier League Football as soon as it opened. The Covid-19 pandemic has ensured that dream has come true, albeit in a round about way, and Brentford fans will be piling into the Stadium on Friday to produced an intense atmosphere from the start.
Home advantage was somewhat lost last season as clubs played in front of empty stands, but I do think the return of fans will be a big boost for teams up and down the country. Brentford played well at home last season anyway, but they did have too many draws for Thomas Franks' liking and having the fans pushing the players on should help.
Of course Brentford are playing at a higher level now and they were beaten here by Leicester City in the FA Cup. However, Brentford also reached the League Cup Quarter Final with wins over Southampton, West Brom (Penalties), Fulham and Newcastle United and that should let the players know they are capable of performing against Premier League clubs.
First up is an Arsenal team that will not have European Football on the calendar for the first time in 25 years and who look to have hit a low point in their recent history. They did end the Premier League season in good form which will be encouraging for Mikel Arteta, while Arsenal won 10 of their 19 away Premier League games last season.
Ben White is the only signing of note to this point, but Arsenal have some quality younger players that look to have taken a step forward in their development over the last twelve months. The Gunners still have the quality of Alexandre Lacazette, Nicolas Pepe and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in the final third too and they were a pretty stubborn team to break down in the Premier League last season before adding Ben White to the mix.
Arsenal were unbeaten away from home at the seven clubs that made up the bottom of the Premier League last season and they won 6 of those games. While I do think Brentford are capable of surviving at this level, Arsenal finished with a top four away defence according to the underlying stats last season and they are capable of opening up with an important win here.
This will be far from easy, especially when you consider how tough Brentford are at home, but the jump in level and the expected improvement of Arsenal gives them an edge here. The Gunners won 0-3 at newly promoted Fulham on the opening weekend of last season and, while the odds on quote is far from appealing, I do think they can open this Premier League campaign with a victory.
It won't be as comfortable as it was in a different part of West London last September, but Arsenal can do just enough to secure the points.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Brentford 0-1 Arsenal
